|| With higher population growth and increasing living standards in emerging and developing countries, resource use will continue increasing in the coming decades, with serious consequences for the environment and climate change.
This seminar presents detailed projections of the global economy until 2060 at regional and sectoral scale, with a focus on a plausible evolution of demand systems. It, then, identifies income convergence between countries, structural change, and technology changes as the economic drivers of food, energy and other material use in the future, as well as the associated environmental pressures.
The analysis is based on the ENV-Linkages computable general equilibrium model, which has been enhanced to include material flows for 61 materials for multiple categories: biotic resources (incl. food), fossil fuels, metallic ores and non-metallic minerals.
The seminar draws on the results of the forthcoming OECD’s “Global Material Resources Use Outlook to 2060”, which finds that, in absence of policy action or substantial further life style changes, material extraction in the coming decades will double, as well as an increase in demand for energy, demand for land for crops for food production and emissions of greenhouse gases.