Solar Revolution - The Role of Photovoltaics for the Energy Transition

​►	in Development - Lecture Series Back to the Lecture Series: Energy in Development

Goals of a sustainable energy development

The classical and superior triad of goals in energypolicy consists of

1. security of energy supply
   
2. cost effectiveness
3. environmental sustainability

Thus, all forms of energy production and supply have to meet these goals. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and given the topic of this particular lecture, Photovoltaics (PV) in particular are the only means of production and supply that achieve this. Especially when regarding electrical power, RES are the only technologies currently available and economically feasible.

Given the scientific undisputed fact of global warming or so-called climate change RES are without alternative when it comes to mitigating climate change. Data, simulations as well as reports, i.e. IPCC climate change 2013, physical science basis 2013 confirm that there exists a raise in temperatures that is to a high probability caused by anthropogenic activity.

Winter storm "Xaver" in Germany and North-western Europe and typhoon "Hayan" in the Philippines are just the latest and most recent events in a serious of natural catastrophies increasing, both in magnitude and occurency. Since the year 2005 hurricane "Kathrina", 2005, a serious of Tornados in the Mid-West, 2012, hurricane "Sandy", 2010 and the two so-called centennial floods in Germany and neighbouring countries up- and downstream such as Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia have repeatedly raised concerns about the presence and outcome of climate change. Even more so,there is an ongoing discussion about the fatalistic drought in Eastern Africa, mainly on the territory of Somalia, Kenya, Athopia, Sudan and South Sudan to be one of the first natural catastrophies mainly induced and driven by climate change.

Considering the current trend, global emissions continue to increase as well as levels of CO2-concentration in the atmosphere. This is widely referred to as the "Business as usual"-scenario. Accordingly, until the end of the century this scenario leads to an increase in global average tmperature of at least 4 - 5K, leaving the Arctic without ice coverage in summer month from ca. 2040 onwards. These current and imminent developments support the urgency of a decarbonization of western, but also global economies and societies. In order to achieve this it is self-evident to turn to RES as it is the most feasible, fast and cost effective path. Other strategies are less promising, as for instance, carbon trade suggests.

In order to comply with a two-degree-increase-secenario, as suggested by the UN, IPCC and thus widely considered as a critical point for an "uncontrollable climate change" the lecturer in his research found it mandatory to minimize if not end emissions of greenhouse-gases (GHG) globally by the year 2040.

Against this backgorund the targets and resolutions of the german gouvernments are not suitable or sufficient. Statistics suggest that the major part of german reduction in GHG can be atttributed to the effect of the German Reunion in 1989 and the resulting phaseout of former Eastern German heavy industry. Actually, GHG-emissions in Germany remain at a constant level. In consideration of the steep increase of the share of RES in power production the target marks of 40 - 45% until 2025, or 55 -60% until 2035 respectively can hardly be called ambitious and will easily be overachieved. Nevertheless, contradictions in gouvernment's proclamation of CO2-reduction targets by 40% in 2040 remain, as that level of share of RES is not suffiecient when electricity demand contonues to steadily increase as it permantly did in the past.

Interstingly enough, party affiliation did not influence the character and speed of the annex of RES in the recent years.

Thesis I

The only way to mitigate climate change below 2 degrees is to have a Zero-Emissions Economy by the year 2040. The fastest and moste cost effective means to achieve this is through RES.

As the latest climate conference in Warsow just confirmed again, international policy makers will not act sufficiently swift in order to put a halt to the drastic development of climate change. Obviously politicians and gouvernmental institutions and organisations are for various reasons not capable of limiting climate change from top-down.

Imagine a Beach party in the Philippines far away from the big cities: flashing lights, loud music, laughter. The film scene we were shown was made possible by a mini grid - a single photovoltaic module feeding one battery could not have made it possible.

In Germany there is a 100% electrical grid connection which connects 0.08 billion people - but according to the United Nations Foundation worldwide 1.3 billion people lack that access. In India the percentage of people who lack access to electricity amounted to 34% in 2009. Another billion of those who are electrified are only provided poor quality: electricity comes only limited time of the day and power cuts are experienced regularly.

For the research team of “Microenergy-Systems” at the Technical University (TU) of Berlin this seems like a huge market for innovative approaches. Especially because the experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect in their “Energy for All Case” that 70% of the non-electrified rural areas cannot be reached with centralized grids, but only with mini-grids or stand-alone off-grid solutions.

Energy access in developing countries can be classified in three categories:

• In urban regions people can be classified as temporarily on-grid. So even if energy prices in for example India are much lower than in Germany this still means no advantage for small or medium businesses because this electricity comes with much poorer quality.
• In suburban areas poor people can live in sight of electrical power lines without having their own connection. The needed transformer station provides too much costs – an official program would be needed to subsidize the electrification. From a new perspective people living here could be called close-to-grid.
• In rural areas far from transmission lines the population is classified as off-grid. To change these people's lives for the better a new perspective is needed: providing decentralized energy access so these people can have their own electricity generation.

Waiting for political policies to change facing the task of connecting rural areas doesn’t seem to be satisfying. By installing Home Systems solar home systems (SHS), diesel generators and other electricity producing options and connecting them to form small grids is a proactive way for rural village populations to become electrified.

What is Swarm Electrification?

The basis for swarm electrification are households and small businesses in rural undeveloped areas - to develop a micro empowerment from the bottom-up.

The premise for a swarm grid is an off-grid village with some installed solar or other generators and some storage capacities. Usually that would be Home Systems Solar Home Systems which operate normally with:

• 20 to 85 Wp photovoltaic panels
• Lead acid batteries
• Efficient 12 V direct current (DC) loads (e.g. LED lights)
• Charge controller

The implementation of this new SHS technological approach is end-user financed by providing micro loans according to the example of the Grameen Bank. These systems generally have a payback period of one to three years and can guarantee three days of electricity autonomy in case of cloudy conditions.

The grid connecting of rural off-grid houses in a swarm electrification scenario is complete when three steps have been taken:

• Phase 1: Households with SHS get connected to each other to be able to use each others battery capacities, making swarm grid
• Phase 2: Connect neighbouring swarm grids to a regional grid
• Phase 3: Connect regional grid to the national grid

To get more information on swarm electrification please visit MicroEnergy International's Homepage.

Why would the big utilities go that last step at phase 3?

Utilities are driven by politicians that are interested in high electrification rates which they could easily augment with one step. The main reason for power cuts is overload which could be minimized by a bigger grid. Utilities could cut off that part of the grid (islanding) if they realize that the frequency in the grid is unstable. Additionally, the investment for the utility is comparatively low because the power meters are already there and with one step they could connect thousands.