Development of 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook

Background

Endorsed by the 30th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) on 12 September 2012 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) was tasked to coordinate and lead the Working Group (AEO WG) which comprises of Experts from all of the 10 ASEAN Member States, to develop the 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO) that is planned to be reported and published at the 33rd AMEM next year in Malaysia.

The 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook

The 4th AEO is the continuation from the previous three Outlooks which was carried out and published in 2006, 2009 and 2011. The findings of the 3rd AEO raised some concerns. ASEAN will continue to be dependent on fossil fuels, especially oil and the rapid growth of electricity demand will increase its dependency to the use of fossil fuels, especially coal. While acknowledging energy efficiency and conservation (EE&C) as one of the most effective ways of meeting future demand, another sustainable way to curb the demand is to accelerate the development of renewable energy (RE), increasing its share and attain a more balanced mix in electricity generation, and formulating policies to promote the utilization of renewable and alternative fuels. The objective of the 4th AEO is to establish the forecast of energy demand of ASEAN (regional and national level) up to 2035 under various scenarios with a greater emphasize on an Alternative Policy Scenario (APS). The AEO is an important contribution to the discussion on the future development of the energy sector in the ASEAN region and serves as a scientific basis for decision makers. The 4th AEO is planned to comprise three scenarios; (i) Business as Usual (BaU) Scenario, (ii) New Policy Scenario (NPS), and (iii) Alternative Policy Scenario (APS). While the NPS includes the official RE and EE&C targets of the member states, the APS focus on the achievement of the the current targets of 25% RE share in ASEAN energy mix in 2020 and 30% RE share in ASEAN Power Generation Mix as well as related targets on energy intensity.

The 1st working group of AEO Development

The first working group was held on 10-13 February 2015 in Jakarta, Indonesia. The meeting was officially opened by Ir. Jarman, MSc, Director General of Electricity, Indonesian Ministry of Energy, and Mineral Resources, and also Mr. Sanjayan Velautham, Executive Director of ACE.

The Renewable Energy Support Programme for ASEAN (ASEAN-RESP), jointly implemented by theDeutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), support the development of 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook.