Mexico Energy Situation

Overview

Mexico
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Capital	Mexico DF
Official language(s)	Spanish
Government	Presidential Republic
President	Felipe Calderon
Total area	1,972,550 km2
Population	112 336 538 (2010)
GDP (nominal)	US$1,034,804 Million (2010)
GDP Per capita	US$ 9,123 (2010)
HDI	0.770 (2011)
Electricity generation	257.88 TWh/year (2011)
Access to electricity	97.61 (2011)
Wind Energy	873 MW (Dec 2011)
Solar Energy	MW
Geothermal Energy	965 MW (By August 2010)

Energy situation

Mexico is ranked as the 7^th biggest Oil producer in the World, and this is reflected in its energy mix. From the 9.25 EJ (primary energy) produced in 2010, 93% came from fossil fuels. The net energy consumption on the same year was 8.15EJ, yielding a fairly low average of 75.2GJ per capita which, however, corresponds to and an energy intensity of 4.96MJ/GDP (US$ PPP) comparable to that of most European countries.

Renwable energy sources

According to SENER the installed capacity of renewable energy sources by the end of 2011 was 2.4GW, corresponding to 3.88% of the total. Wind parks La Venta III, Oaxaca I and IV, which started operation by April 2012 represent 307MW more, rising the share of renewables to at least 4.38%.

Hydropower

According to the National Energy Strategy 2012 - 2026, by the end of 2011 a total of 11.6GW effective installed capacity was available from Hydro, of which only 1% corresponds to small hydro, a much higher figure of 416MW is given in the site for Renewable Energies of the Ministry of Energy, the difference being probably due to the definition of "small" hydro. The value is in any case expected to grow fast, as it is now three times higher than it was in 2006, and additional 132.6MW already have permission for construction.

The total estimated potential for large hydro (>40GWh/year) corresponds to an installed capacity of 52 GW, of which nearly 20% is already in operation. An overall production of 38TWh/year could be expected from the overall capacity. The potential for small hydro (5MW to 30MW) was estimated by CONAE in 2005 as 3.2GW, but so far no reliable estimates exist for micro- and mini-hydro.,

Solar power

Mexico is a sun belt country with an annual average irradiation of 5.5 kWh/m ²·day. Depending on location and time of the year the value may go from 3.0 to 8.5 kWh/m ²·day, making solar radiation a potentially unlimited energy source. A simplistic but frequently given figure is that a square area of 25km side covered with PV panels in the Sonora desert could provide todays complete electricity demand.

The actual potential is limited by the (still) high cost of electricity production with PV and the absence of subsidies for the technology. CONUEE in cooperation with the GTZ estimated a market niche of only 89MW for grid connected PV systems with grid parity by 2009, corresponding to small percentage of households in the DAC (High Consumption Domestic) tariff. The same study estimates 693MW if the price of PV modules goes down 20% within 5 years, and 1336MW with a further reduction of 50%.

Installed capacity started to take off during the last few years. The first plant on public service started operating in 2011 in Santa Rosalía, Baja California Sur, with 1MWp PV. A 5MWp plant should start operating in 2012 near Mexicali, Baja California Norte.The first large scale project for Concentrated Solar Power is the hybrid combined-cycle plant Agua Prieta II, which should be completed by 2013. The solar part consists of 14MW of Parabolic through mirrors.

The potential for solar hot water heaters was estimated as 115PJ by CONAE in 2005, the figure represents 2.3% of the current final energy consumption, and was originally calculated considering a 50% coverage of all energy requirement for low temperature heating. According to the National Association of Solar Energy (ANES) 1.94 million square meters of collectors were already installed by 2010, generating some 9.3PJ per year (8% of the estimated potential).

More infomation:

• Asociacion nacional de energia solar ANES (Spanish only)

Wind power

According to SENER the potential for wind energy in Mexico is higher than 50GW, while the Mexican Association of Wind Energy (AMDEE) rises this value to 71GW (both with capacity factors higher than 20%). The levelized cost of electricity production from wind was calculated as 10.3US¢/kWh by 2011, just above nuclear (9.8¢/kWh) and only 25% higher than coal (8.3¢/kWh). With rising prices of fossil fuels SENER estimates that 20GW of wind energy projects could become competitive by 2020.

The actual installed capacity is booming, and went from 2MW in 2006 to 1080MW by April 2012, it is expected that by the end of 2012 private and public projects will add up to 2.2GW, 4% of the electric installed capacity. Most projects are located in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, which according to AMDEE has a potential on its own of 10GW, offering wind power densities of more than 800W/m² and capacity factors in the range of 40%. La Rumorosa, in Baja California is apparently lagging behind, but might have 4.57GW installed within the next five years.

NREL hass developed  wind atlas of some regions.

More information:

• Asociacion mexicana de energia eolica (Spanish only)

Geothermal

Mexico is the 4th place in the world in geothermal installed capacity, with 958 MW (2011). The technology accounts for 2.53% of the total electricity production, but most of the resources available with the current plant designs seem to be already tapped. Installed capacity has fallen 7.6% since 2006, while only 186MW of proved reserves remain to be exploited. Recent studies, however, have suggested that up to 2.8GW producing 9.79TWh per year could be exploited using binary-cycle and condensation plants.