Difference between revisions of "PeopleSuN Demand Modeling"

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WP3 will model appliance ownership and electricity consumption growth trends for households and enterprises. It will model available expenditures for electricity services and provide indication of “affordable” monthly service costs. Besides, normative “decent” energy needs for households and community services will be described.
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== '''Demand Database Generated from PeopleSuN Survey Database''' ==
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The demand database within the PeopleSuN project was constructed by utilizing survey responses from 3,599 households and 1,122 enterprises. The survey included a set of questions specifically designed to ascertain the ownership of electrical appliances, as well as the timing of their usage during both the day and night.
  
Statistical models with stochastic algorithms are combined to generate distributions of likely electricity demand and expenditures. This is first conducted for the 225 enumeration areas that were visited and then extrapolated to all of non-urban Nigeria. The approach includes both pre-calculated electricity demand estimates (backend), as well as a tool for fully customisable stochastic demand modelling in any village (front-end). Different profiles are created per zone and per atlasAI wealth category, resulting in 10 different consumer categories/profiles.
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To generate demand profiles based on appliance ownership and usage hours, the team employed RAMP<ref>https://rampdemand.org/</ref>, an open-source bottom-up stochastic model for generating multi-energy load profiles.
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Calculated demand profiles are divided into two main categories: households and enterprises.
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* For households, five distinct archetypical categories were modeled, employing an assigned “appliance index” value as a categorization basis. The appliance index takes into account the appliances used within households, together with their power consumption and duration of usage.
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* For enterprises, a fundamental archetypical demand profile was calculated for each kind of enterprise. Additionally, there is an option to consider the demand profile when typical heavy loads associated with a specific industry are incorporated into an enterprise's profile.
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The demand database constitutes an integral part of the [[PeopleSuN Off Grid Planning Tool|PeopleSuN Off Grid Planning Tool]]. For more detailed information regarding the calculations and methodologies used to construct this database, please refer to the method publication<ref>Pelz, S., Chinichian, N., Neyrand, C., & Blechinger, P. (2023). Electricity supply quality and use among rural and peri-urban households and small firms in Nigeria. Scientific Data, 10(1), 273. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02185-0</nowiki></ref>.
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[[Category:Nigeria Off-Grid Solar Knowledge Hub]]
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[[Category:Nigeria]]
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[[Category:Solar]]
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[[Category:Off-grid]]

Latest revision as of 12:59, 13 September 2023

Demand Database Generated from PeopleSuN Survey Database

The demand database within the PeopleSuN project was constructed by utilizing survey responses from 3,599 households and 1,122 enterprises. The survey included a set of questions specifically designed to ascertain the ownership of electrical appliances, as well as the timing of their usage during both the day and night.

To generate demand profiles based on appliance ownership and usage hours, the team employed RAMP[1], an open-source bottom-up stochastic model for generating multi-energy load profiles.

Calculated demand profiles are divided into two main categories: households and enterprises.

  • For households, five distinct archetypical categories were modeled, employing an assigned “appliance index” value as a categorization basis. The appliance index takes into account the appliances used within households, together with their power consumption and duration of usage.
  • For enterprises, a fundamental archetypical demand profile was calculated for each kind of enterprise. Additionally, there is an option to consider the demand profile when typical heavy loads associated with a specific industry are incorporated into an enterprise's profile.

The demand database constitutes an integral part of the PeopleSuN Off Grid Planning Tool. For more detailed information regarding the calculations and methodologies used to construct this database, please refer to the method publication[2].

  1. https://rampdemand.org/
  2. Pelz, S., Chinichian, N., Neyrand, C., & Blechinger, P. (2023). Electricity supply quality and use among rural and peri-urban households and small firms in Nigeria. Scientific Data, 10(1), 273. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02185-0