PeopleSuN Demand Modeling
WP3 will model appliance ownership and electricity consumption growth trends for households and enterprises. It will model available expenditures for electricity services and provide indication of “affordable” monthly service costs. Besides, normative “decent” energy needs for households and community services will be described.
Statistical models with stochastic algorithms are combined to generate distributions of likely electricity demand and expenditures. This is first conducted for the 225 enumeration areas that were visited and then extrapolated to all of non-urban Nigeria. The approach includes both pre-calculated electricity demand estimates (backend), as well as a tool for fully customisable stochastic demand modelling in any village (front-end). Different profiles are created per zone and per atlasAI wealth category, resulting in 10 different consumer categories/profiles.
