Difference between revisions of "VRE Discussion Series"

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Under the ‘vRE Discussion Series’, we put forth emerging results and issues of special interest to GIZ partners, along the main fields of our work: vRE policy, economics, finance and technology issues. As the series’ title indicates, these are often based on work in progress, and we strongly encourage suggestions and ideas by mail to the contact below.
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Jens Burgtorf - Head of Sector Program "Technology Cooperation in the Energy Sector": [mailto:jens.burgtorf@giz.de jens.burgtorf@giz.de]<br/>
  
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Elmar Schuppe - Sector Program "Technology Cooperation in the Energy Sector": [mailto:elmar.schuppe@giz.de elmar.schuppe@giz.de]<br/>
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In October GIZ released the first five issues of the “vRE Discussion Series“.
 
  
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The “vRE Discussion Series” will continuously put forth emerging results and issues of special interest to GIZ partners, along the 4 main fields of our work: vRE policy, economics, finance and technology issues. As the series’ title indicates, these are often based on work in progress, and we strongly encourage suggestions and ideas by mail to the contact below.
+
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Klas Heising - Head of Sector Program "Technology Cooperation in the Energy Sector": [mailto:klas.heising@giz.de klas.heising@giz.de]
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The vRE Discussion Series includes the following publications:<br/>
  
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Frank Seidel - Sector Program "Technology Cooperation in the Energy Sector": [mailto:frank.seidel@giz.de frank.seidel@giz.de]
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*'''[[VRE Discussion Series#Paper 1 .E2.80.93 Policy|Paper 1 – Policy:]]''' Towards Adequate National Renewable Energy Planning for dynamic energy sectors<br/>
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*'''[[VRE Discussion Series#Paper 2 .E2.80.93 Economics|Paper 2 – Economics:]] '''Estimating the Operational Benefits of Growing PV and Wind Shares in National Power Grids
 +
*'''[[VRE Discussion Series#Paper 3 .E2.80.93 Technology|Paper 3 – Technology:]]'''The Need for better vRE performance predictions: Common mistakes in simulation, design and LCOE estimates of solar and wind power for emerging markets
 +
*'''[[VRE Discussion Series#Paper 4 .E2.80.93 Finance|Paper 4 – Finance:]] '''PV Finance and Project Development; How local Market Conditions are affecting Cost, Risk and Return
 +
*'''[[VRE Discussion Series#Paper 5 .E2.80.93 Technology|Paper 5 – Technology:]] '''Power System Security in Developing and Emerging Countries
 +
*'''[[VRE Discussion Series#Paper 6 .E2.80.93 Technology|Paper 6 – Technology:]]''' Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting - Integration into Electricity Grids and Makets - A Best Practice Guide
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*'''[[VRE Discussion Series#Paper 7 .E2.80.93 Policy|Paper 7 – Policy:]]''' Transformation of the Power Sector and Its Framework in Developing Countries
  
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__NOTOC__
  
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== The GIZ TechCoop vRE Programme<br/> ==
  
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Over the past decade, a ‘1st wave’ of National Subsidy Programmes for variable (i.e. fluctuating) Renewable Energies (vRE) has (i) led to impressive growth in global cumulative installed capacity of wind and PV power and (ii) dramatic RE cost reductions. However, due to their typical ‘technology push’ focus, most of these 1st wave national vRE programmes have not aimed at achieving an economically optimal pathway for national wind and PV development over time. Naturally, this has led to suboptimal national RE deployment, resulting in (i) unnecessary losses of Government budget and credibility (subsidy schemes were too expensive or too slow, RE technologies were scaled up too early or applied at the wrong network nodes, lack of planning resulted in avoidable transmission losses or dispatch problems), and/or (ii) excessive private sector profits and/or massive insolvency waves after subsidy-driven vRE bubbles. None of this is intrinsic to vRE technologies or economics: it was simply ill-advised planning.
  
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== The GIZ TechCoop vRE Programme ==
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Increasingly, OECD and non-OECD governments want to move beyond simple vRE technology-push policies, and shift to a new, 2nd wave of optimised national vRE pathways, by applying the same fundamental economic, financial, and political target functions that are used successfully for standard power system planning. To this end, vRE need to be analysed as an integral part of the national energy system and its growth in time and space, by applying methods which readily fit the toolkit already used by dispatchers, regulators, and utilities.
  
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Over the past decade, a “1st wave” of National Subsidy Programmes for variable/ fluctuating Renewable Energies (vRE) has (i) led to impressive growth in global cumulative installed capacity of wind and PV power and (ii) dramatic RE cost reductions. However, due to their typical “technology push” focus, most of these1st wave national vRE programmes have not aimed at achieving an economically optimal pathway for national wind and PV development over time. Naturally, this has led to suboptimal national RE deployment, resulting in (i) unnecessary losses of Government budget and credibility (subsidy schemes were too expensive or too slow, RE technologies were scaled up too early or applied at the wrong network nodes, lack of planning resulted in avoidable transmission losses or dispatch problems), and/or (ii) excessive private sector profits and/or massive insolvency waves after subsidy-driven vRE bubbles. None of this is intrinsic to vRE technologies or economics: it was simply ill-advised planning.
+
vRE integration has advanced in numerous power sectors and these have experienced a steep learning curve with respect to changes in system operations and expansion, business models and planning, policies and institutions, and further transformation will require more innovative approaches. At the same time, some global trends such as rapid innovation deployment, policy, and finance are and will be changing the power sector profoundly and in every aspect, all over the world. This requires advanced adjustment, in some cases even a disruptive change in respective planning, policy, business models, and institutional framework. Institutional response, however, is discussed so far mostly for industrialised countries, but indeed only for very few emerging economies. Therefore, the GIZ Technology Cooperation vRE Programme is compiling solutions and transmitting them to developing countries, which face the challenge of change sooner or later.
  
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
  
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Increasingly, OECD and non-OECD Governments want to move beyond simple vRE technology-push policies, and shift to a new, 2nd wave of optimized national vRE pathways, by applying the same fundamental economic, financial and political goal functions that are used successfully for standard power system planning. To this end, vRE need to be analyzed as an INTEGRAL part of the national energy system and its growth in time and space, by applying methods which readily fit the toolkit already used by dispatchers, regulators and utilities.
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= Published Discussion Papers =
  
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== Paper 1 – Policy ==
  
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Integrated vRE National Masterplans do not exist yet, though it is pretty clear what they would have to accomplish (IEA 2014, SMUD 2013). This has several causes, such as: (i) the inherent fluctuating character of vRE (wind and PV feed-in depends strongly on sunshine and wind availability at any given moment) poses a set of specific power planning and dispatch problems to established sector agents (dispatch, regulator, utilities) which may seem daunting initially (yet, a closer look reveals that they can be handled easily by these players with their existing processes, with a modest amount of training); (ii) existing studies have often focused on OECD countries and their results are not readily transferrable to GIZ partner countries (where grids can be weaker and demand grows faster and hydro can play a more positive role in vRE development); and (iii) few studies focus on pragmatic incremental steps based on the real-life generation mix, transmission system and fixed short-term capacity planning of specific countries (most look at long term vRE targets including smart storage >2030 instead, thus providing little guidance to pragmatic policy makers).<br/>
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{| style="width: 737.08px" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" border="0"
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[[File:VRE1 Policy.png|center|230px|alt=VRE 1 - Policy.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/7/71/Discussion_Series_01_Policy_web.pdf]]<br/>
  
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'''Paper 1 – Policy:''' Towards Adequate National Renewable Energy Planning for dynamic energy sectors<br/>'''Authors:''' K. Heising, K. Reiche and B. Zymla<br/>'''Release: '''Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015<br/>'''This paper is available in multiple languages:'''<br/>'''English''' [https://energypedia.info/images/7/71/Discussion_Series_01_Policy_web.pdf View]<br/>'''Arabic '''[https://energypedia.info/images/e/ec/VRE_Paper_1_-_Policy_-_Arabic.pdf View] <span style="line-height: 1.5em;  font-size: 13.63px"></span>'''French '''[https://energypedia.info/images/7/7d/VRE_Paper_1_-_Policy_-_French.pdf View] <span style="line-height: 1.5em;  font-size: 13.63px"></span>'''Spanish '''[https://energypedia.info/images/a/a2/VRE_Paper_1_-_Policy_-_Spanish.pdf View] <span style="line-height: 1.5em;  font-size: 13.63px"></span>'''Turkish '''<span style="line-height: 1.5em;  font-size: 13.63px"></span>[https://energypedia.info/images/8/87/VRE_Paper_1_-_Policy_-_Turkish.pdf View]<br/>
  
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== Paper 2 – Economics ==
  
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= Published Discussion Papers =
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{| style="width: 737.08px" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" border="0"
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[[File:VRE2 Economics.png|center|230px|alt=VRE 2 - Economics.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/1/1f/Discussion_Series_02_Economics_web.pdf]]<br/>
  
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Last date of release: October 7th, 2014
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'''Paper 2 – Economics:''' Estimating the Operational Benefits of Growing PV and Wind Shares in National Power Grids<br/>'''Authors: '''W. Teplitz, K. Reiche, E. Durand<br/>'''Release: '''Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015<br/>►[https://energypedia.info/images/1/1f/Discussion_Series_02_Economics_web.pdf View]<br/>
  
 
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== Paper 3 – Technology ==
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[[File:VRE3 Technology.png|center|230px|alt=VRE 3 - Technology.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/1/12/Discussion_Series_03_Technology_web.pdf]]<br/>
  
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'''Paper 1 – Policy:''' Towards and Adequate National Renewable Energy Planning for dynamic energy sectors.
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'''Paper 3 – Technology:''' The Need for better vRE performance predictions: Common mistakes in simulation, design and LCOE estimates of solar and wind power for emerging markets<br/>'''Authors: '''H.-G. Beyer, K. Heising, G. Hille, K. Reiche, R. Rüther<br/>'''Release: '''Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015<br/>►[https://energypedia.info/images/1/12/Discussion_Series_03_Technology_web.pdf View]<br/>
  
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'''Authors:''' K. Heising, K. Reiche and B. Zymla
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<u>[[:File:VRE Discussion Series Policy Paper1.pdf|View]]</u>
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== Paper 4 – Finance ==
  
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{| style="width: 737.08px" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" border="0"
 
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| style="width: 307px;" | [[File:VRE 2 - Economics.jpg|center|230px|alt=VRE 2 - Economics.png]]
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[[File:VRE4 Finance.png|center|230px|alt=VRE 4 - Finance.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/4/49/Discussion_Series_04_Finance_web.pdf]]<br/>
  
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'''Paper 2 – Economics''': Estimating the Operational Benefits and Wind Shares in National Power Grids.
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'''Paper 4 – Finance:''' PV Finance and Project Development; How local Market Conditions are affecting Cost, Risk and Return<br/>'''Authors: '''G. Hille, K. Heising, K. Reiche<br/>'''Release: '''Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015<br/>►[https://energypedia.info/images/4/49/Discussion_Series_04_Finance_web.pdf View]<br/>
  
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'''Authors: '''W. Teplitz, K. Reiche, E. Durand
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<u>[[:File:VRE Discussion Series Economics Paper2.pdf|View]]</u>
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== Paper 5 – Technology ==
  
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{| style="width: 737.08px" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" border="0"
 
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| style="width: 307px;" | [[File:VRE 3 - Technology.jpg|center|234px|alt=VRE 3 - Technology.png]]
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[[File:VRE5 Technology.png|center|230px|alt=VRE 5 - Technology.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/1/15/Discussion_Series_05_Technology_web.pdf]]<br/>
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'''Paper 5 – Technology: '''Power System Security in Developing and Emerging Countries<br/>'''Authors: '''Markus Pöller, Moeller & Poeller Engineering (M.P.E.) GmbH (Consultancy)<br/>'''Release: '''Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015<br/>► [https://energypedia.info/images/1/15/Discussion_Series_05_Technology_web.pdf View]<br/>
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== Paper 6 – Technology ==
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'''Paper 3 – Technology:''' The Need for better vRE Performance Predictions: Common Mistakes in Simulation, Design and LCOE Estimates of Solar and Wind Power for Emerging Markets.
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{| style="width: 737.08px" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" border="0"
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[[File:VRE6 Technology.png|center|230px|alt=VRE6 Technology.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/2/2a/Discussion_Series_06_Technology_web.pdf]]<br/>
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'''Paper 6 – Technology:''' Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting - Integration into Electricity Grids and Makets - A Best Practice Guide<br/>'''Authors: '''Malte Zieher, Dr. Matthias Lange, Dr. Ulrich Focken (energy & meteo systems GmbH)<br/>'''Release: '''Original publication July 2015<br/>►[https://energypedia.info/images/2/2a/Discussion_Series_06_Technology_web.pdf View]<br/>
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'''Authors: '''H.-G. Beyer, G. Hille, K. Reiche, R. Rüther
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<br/>
  
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<u>[[:File:VRE Discussion Series Technology Paper3.pdf|View]]</u>
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== Paper 7 – Policy ==
  
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| style="width: 307px;" | [[File:VRE 4 - Finance.jpg|center|232px|alt=VRE 4 - Finance.png]]
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[[File:VRE7 Policy.PNG|center|230px|alt=VRE6 Technology.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/2/26/Discussion_Series_07_Policy_web.pdf]]<br/>
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'''Paper 7 – Policy:''' Transformation of the Power Sector and Its Framework in Developing Countries<br/>'''Authors: '''Paul H. Suding, Elmar Schuppe, Philipp Creutzburg<br/>'''Release: '''Original Publication June 2018<br/>►[https://energypedia.info/images/2/26/Discussion_Series_07_Policy_web.pdf View]<br/>
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'''Paper 4 – Finance:''' PV Finance and Project Development; How local Market Conditions are affecting Cost, Risk and Return.
 
  
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'''Authors: '''G. Hille, K. Heising, K. Reiche
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<u>[[:File:VRE Discussion Series Finance Paper4.pdf|View]]</u>
 
  
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| style="width: 307px;" | [[File:VRE 5 - Technology.jpg|center|232px|alt=VRE 5 - Technology.png]]
 
 
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= Featured Publications =
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'''Paper 5 – Technology:''' Power System Security in Developing and Emerging Countries.
 
  
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'''Authors: '''Markus Pöller, Moeller & Poeller Engineering (M.P.E.) GmbH
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{| style="width: 737.08px" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" border="0"
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[[File:Renewable energy auctions cover.png|center|230px|alt=Renewable energy auctions cover.png|link=https://energypedia.info/images/f/fe/Renewable_Energy_Auctions_%28GIZ%29.pdf]]<br/>
  
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<u>[[:File:VRE Discussion Series Technology Paper5.pdf|View]]</u>
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'''Titel:''' Renewable Energy Auctions - Goal-oriented policy design<br/>'''Authors: '''Oliver Tietjen, Ana Amazo Blanco, Tim Pfefferle (GIZ)<br/>'''Release: '''Original publication February 2015<br/>►[https://energypedia.info/images/f/fe/Renewable_Energy_Auctions_(GIZ).pdf View]
  
 
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Latest revision as of 08:14, 12 September 2022

VRE Series Overview.png

Under the ‘vRE Discussion Series’, we put forth emerging results and issues of special interest to GIZ partners, along the main fields of our work: vRE policy, economics, finance and technology issues. As the series’ title indicates, these are often based on work in progress, and we strongly encourage suggestions and ideas by mail to the contact below.

Jens Burgtorf - Head of Sector Program "Technology Cooperation in the Energy Sector": jens.burgtorf@giz.de

Elmar Schuppe - Sector Program "Technology Cooperation in the Energy Sector": elmar.schuppe@giz.de

The vRE Discussion Series includes the following publications:

  • Paper 1 – Policy: Towards Adequate National Renewable Energy Planning for dynamic energy sectors
  • Paper 2 – Economics: Estimating the Operational Benefits of Growing PV and Wind Shares in National Power Grids
  • Paper 3 – Technology:The Need for better vRE performance predictions: Common mistakes in simulation, design and LCOE estimates of solar and wind power for emerging markets
  • Paper 4 – Finance: PV Finance and Project Development; How local Market Conditions are affecting Cost, Risk and Return
  • Paper 5 – Technology: Power System Security in Developing and Emerging Countries
  • Paper 6 – Technology: Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting - Integration into Electricity Grids and Makets - A Best Practice Guide
  • Paper 7 – Policy: Transformation of the Power Sector and Its Framework in Developing Countries


The GIZ TechCoop vRE Programme

Over the past decade, a ‘1st wave’ of National Subsidy Programmes for variable (i.e. fluctuating) Renewable Energies (vRE) has (i) led to impressive growth in global cumulative installed capacity of wind and PV power and (ii) dramatic RE cost reductions. However, due to their typical ‘technology push’ focus, most of these 1st wave national vRE programmes have not aimed at achieving an economically optimal pathway for national wind and PV development over time. Naturally, this has led to suboptimal national RE deployment, resulting in (i) unnecessary losses of Government budget and credibility (subsidy schemes were too expensive or too slow, RE technologies were scaled up too early or applied at the wrong network nodes, lack of planning resulted in avoidable transmission losses or dispatch problems), and/or (ii) excessive private sector profits and/or massive insolvency waves after subsidy-driven vRE bubbles. None of this is intrinsic to vRE technologies or economics: it was simply ill-advised planning.

Increasingly, OECD and non-OECD governments want to move beyond simple vRE technology-push policies, and shift to a new, 2nd wave of optimised national vRE pathways, by applying the same fundamental economic, financial, and political target functions that are used successfully for standard power system planning. To this end, vRE need to be analysed as an integral part of the national energy system and its growth in time and space, by applying methods which readily fit the toolkit already used by dispatchers, regulators, and utilities.

vRE integration has advanced in numerous power sectors and these have experienced a steep learning curve with respect to changes in system operations and expansion, business models and planning, policies and institutions, and further transformation will require more innovative approaches. At the same time, some global trends such as rapid innovation deployment, policy, and finance are and will be changing the power sector profoundly and in every aspect, all over the world. This requires advanced adjustment, in some cases even a disruptive change in respective planning, policy, business models, and institutional framework. Institutional response, however, is discussed so far mostly for industrialised countries, but indeed only for very few emerging economies. Therefore, the GIZ Technology Cooperation vRE Programme is compiling solutions and transmitting them to developing countries, which face the challenge of change sooner or later.


Published Discussion Papers

Paper 1 – Policy

VRE 1 - Policy.png

Paper 1 – Policy: Towards Adequate National Renewable Energy Planning for dynamic energy sectors
Authors: K. Heising, K. Reiche and B. Zymla
Release: Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015
This paper is available in multiple languages:
English View
Arabic View French View Spanish View Turkish View

Paper 2 – Economics

VRE 2 - Economics.png

Paper 2 – Economics: Estimating the Operational Benefits of Growing PV and Wind Shares in National Power Grids
Authors: W. Teplitz, K. Reiche, E. Durand
Release: Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015
►View


Paper 3 – Technology

VRE 3 - Technology.png

Paper 3 – Technology: The Need for better vRE performance predictions: Common mistakes in simulation, design and LCOE estimates of solar and wind power for emerging markets
Authors: H.-G. Beyer, K. Heising, G. Hille, K. Reiche, R. Rüther
Release: Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015
►View

Paper 4 – Finance

VRE 4 - Finance.png

Paper 4 – Finance: PV Finance and Project Development; How local Market Conditions are affecting Cost, Risk and Return
Authors: G. Hille, K. Heising, K. Reiche
Release: Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015
►View

Paper 5 – Technology

VRE 5 - Technology.png

Paper 5 – Technology: Power System Security in Developing and Emerging Countries
Authors: Markus Pöller, Moeller & Poeller Engineering (M.P.E.) GmbH (Consultancy)
Release: Original publication October 2014, 2nd edition July 2015
► View


Paper 6 – Technology

VRE6 Technology.png

Paper 6 – Technology: Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting - Integration into Electricity Grids and Makets - A Best Practice Guide
Authors: Malte Zieher, Dr. Matthias Lange, Dr. Ulrich Focken (energy & meteo systems GmbH)
Release: Original publication July 2015
►View


Paper 7 – Policy

VRE6 Technology.png

Paper 7 – Policy: Transformation of the Power Sector and Its Framework in Developing Countries
Authors: Paul H. Suding, Elmar Schuppe, Philipp Creutzburg
Release: Original Publication June 2018
►View




Featured Publications

Renewable energy auctions cover.png

Titel: Renewable Energy Auctions - Goal-oriented policy design
Authors: Oliver Tietjen, Ana Amazo Blanco, Tim Pfefferle (GIZ)
Release: Original publication February 2015
►View


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