Difference between revisions of "Energy Access Figures"
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Revision as of 12:39, 13 December 2013
WORK IN PROGRESS
In the article at hand energy access and investment needs figures from various sources, published at
different times, are summarized. This article is only meant to give a rough overview of existing reliable sources concerning energy access for electricity and cooking energy and investment needs necessary to provide universal access to energy, on a worldwide and regional scale. The presented sources use different input data, different methodologies and different regional aggregates for their calculations and estimates, thus a comparison of calculation and estimation outcomes is difficult and is beyond the scope of this article. In order to enable the access of the original data, in the last section of this article, all the covered sources are declared. The information in this article was combiled by HERA - Poverty-oriented Basic Energy Services.
Electricity Access
Lack of access to electricity worldwide (absolute numbers)
| Source | Present | Future |
|
International Institute for Applied Systems |
2010 - 1.4 billion |
|
|
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (IEA WEO) 2013[2] |
2011 – 1.257 billion |
2030 – 969 million |
|
IEA WEO 2012[3] |
2010 - 1.267 billion |
2030 - 991 million |
|
IEA WEO 2011[4] |
2009 - 1.317 billion |
2030 – 1,036 million |
|
Practical Action 2012[5] |
2009/2010 - 1.5 billion |
2030 - 900 million |
|
United National General Assembly (UN GA) 2010[6] |
2009/2010 – 1.5 billion |
|
|
World Health Orgnaisation (WHO) 2009[7] |
2009 - 1.5 billion |
|
|
UN Secretary-General´s Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change (AGECC) 2010[8] |
2009 - About 1.5 billion |
|
Lack of access to electricity regional (absolute numbers)
Source |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | |||
|
IEA WEO 2013 |
2011 599 mio |
2030 645 mio |
2011 615 mio |
2030 324 mio |
2011 24 mio |
2030 0 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 589 mio |
2030 655 mio |
2010 628 mio |
2030 334 mio |
2010 29 mio |
2030 0 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 586 mio |
2030 645 mio |
2009 675 mio |
2030 376 mio |
2009 31 mio |
2030 10 mio |
Access to Electricity worldwide (% of population)
Source |
Present |
Future | |||
|
United Nations Sustainable Energy for All (UN SE4All) 2013[9] |
Total 2010: 83% |
Rural 2010: 70% |
Urban 2010: 95% |
||
|
University Denver, Paterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) 2013[10] |
Total 2010: 78% |
Total 2035: 89% |
Total 2060: 95% | ||
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
Total 2010: 81% |
Total 2030: 88% |
|||
|
UN Energy |
Total ???: 72% |
| |||
Access to Electricity regional (% of population)
Source |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America | ||||
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
Total |
Sub-Saharan 32% North Africa 99% |
Caucasus a Central 100% East Asia 98% Oceania 25% South Asia 75% South East Asia 88% West Asia 91% |
Latin America and Caribbean 95% | |||
|
Rural |
Sub-Saharan 14% North Africa 99% |
Caucasus a Central 99% East Asia 97% Oceania 14% South Asia 67% South East Asia 80% West Asia 78% |
Latin America and Caribbean 84% | ||||
Urban |
Sub-Saharan 63% North Africa 100% |
Caucasus a Central 100% East Asia 98% Oceania 65% South Asia 94% South East Asia 97% West Asia 97% |
Latin America and Caribbean 98% | ||||
|
|
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | ||||
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 32% |
2030 52% |
2010 82% |
2030 92% |
2010 94% |
2030 100% | |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 31% |
2030 51% |
2009 81% |
2030 91% |
2009 93% |
2030 98% | |
Access to clean cooking energy
People relying on traditional biomass worldwide (absolute numbers)
| Source | Present | Future |
|
IEA WEO 2013 |
2011 – 2.642 billion1 |
2030 – 2.524 billion |
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 - 2.588 billion |
2030 - 2.595 billion |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 – 2.662 billion |
2030 – 2.715 billion |
|
IIASA GEA 2012 |
2009 about 2.7 billion |
(Based on IEA 2010) |
|
Practical Action 2012 |
2010 – nearly 3 billion |
2030 – 3 billion |
|
Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC)[11] |
2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion |
|
|
WHO 2011[12] |
2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion |
|
|
UN Energy[13] |
2013 (solid fuels) about 3 billion |
|
|
AGECC 2010 |
2009 (solid fuels) appr. 3 billion |
|
|
UN GA 2010 |
2009/2010 - 3 billion |
1 Increased number of people relying on traditional use of biomass (from WEO 2012 to WEO 2013) is caused by population number upward revision for India.
People relying on traditional biomass regional (absolute numbers)
Source |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | |||
|
IEA WEO 2013 |
2011 696 mio |
2030 881 mio |
2011 1,869 mio |
2030 1,582 mio |
2011 68 mio |
2030 53 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 696 mio |
2030 883 mio |
2010 1,814 mio |
2030 1,640 mio |
2010 65 mio |
2030 62 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 653 mio |
2030 918 mio |
2009 1,921 mio |
2030 1,769 mio |
2009 85 mio |
2030 79 mio |
Access to non-solid-biofuels worldwide (% of population)
| Source | Present | Future | |||
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
Total 2010: 59% |
Rural 2010: 35% |
Urban 2010: 84% |
|
|
Household Use of modern Forms of Energy (% of population)
| Source | Present | Future | |||
|
PPHP 2013 |
Total 2010: 57% |
Total 2035: 78% |
Total 2060: 88% | ||
Cooking with traditional biomass worldwide (% of population)
| Source | Present | Future | |||
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
Total 2010: 49% |
Total 2030: 39% |
| ||
Access to Non-solid fuels regional (% of population)
Source |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America | ||||
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
Total |
Sub-Saharan 19% North Africa 100% |
Caucasus a Central 85% East Asia 55% Oceania 31% South Asia 40% South East Asia 48% West Asia 95% |
Latin America and Caribbean 86% | |||
|
Rural |
Sub-Saharan 6% North Africa 99% |
Caucasus a Central 74% East Asia 35% Oceania 21% South Asia 23% South East Asia 27% West Asia 86% |
Latin America and Caribbean 57% | ||||
Urban |
Sub-Saharan 42% North Africa 100% |
Caucasus a Central 98% East Asia 76% Oceania 73% South Asia 78% South East Asia 77% West Asia 99% |
Latin America and Caribbean 94% | ||||
Cooking with traditional biomass (% of population)
Source |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | |||
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 81% |
2030 65% |
2010 51% |
2030 39% |
2010 14% |
2030 11% |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 78% |
2030 67% |
2009 54% |
2030 41% |
2009 19% |
2030 14% |
Necessary Investment for Universal Access to Modern Energy Services
Additional average annual investment needed for total/universal energy access
Source |
Annually |
comments |
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
33.9 billion USD |
|
|
|
from 2010 34 billion USD (in total 1 trillion USD (296 billion USD in new policies) 640 billion USD) |
|
|
AGECC 2010 |
35-40 billion USD |
|
|
Pachauri et al 2012[14] |
65 – 86 billion USD |
(only grid–access and LPG-like cooking) |
Electricity
Additional average annual investment needed for total universal electricity access regional, in billion USD
Source |
Global |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America |
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
30.1 bn USD |
SSA 19.1 bn USD |
EA & Oce 0.4 bn USD SA 9.2 bn USD SEA 1.3 bn USD |
|
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
30.5 bn USD |
SSA 18.5 bn USD |
Dev. A. 11.5 bn USD only India 6.4 bn USD |
0.3 bn USD |
Ruijven et al. 2012[15] |
From 2010 - 2030 238 – 400 bn USD |
SSA 6.1 – 10.2 bn USD |
Asia 1.4 – 2.5 bn USD |
LA 4.3 – 7.1 bn USD |
SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia
'Electricity Access for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology'
| Source | Technology | Investment needed per year |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
In Total On-grid electrification Mini-grid electrification Off-grid electrification |
30.5 billion USD/year 11 billion USD/year 12 billion USD/year 7 billion USD/year |
Cooking Energy
Additional average annual investment needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking facilities, regional, in billion USD
Source |
Global |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America |
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
3.8 bn USD |
SSA 1.1 bn USD ME & NAf 0.01 bn USD |
EA & Oce 0.9 bn USD SA 1.2 bn USD SEA 0.4 bn USD |
0.2 bn USD |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
3.5 bn USD |
SSA 1.1 bn USD |
Dev. A. 2.3 bn USD only India 0.8 bn USD only China 0.8 bn USD |
0.2 bn USD |
SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia, ME: Middle East, NAf: North Africa
Clean Cooking Facilities for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology
| Source | Technology | Necessary annual investment |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
|
|
Sources
- ↑ Source: IIASA GEA 2012: Global Energy Assessment- Towards a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- ↑ Source: OECD/IEA (2013): World Energy Outlook 2013
- ↑ Source: OECD/IEA (2012): World Energy Outlook 2012 http://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdf
- ↑ Source: OECD/IEA (2011): Energy for All – Financing Access for the Poor. Special early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2011. Updated estimates of the OECD/IEA 2010fckLRhttp://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdffckLR
- ↑ Source: Practical Action (2012): Poor People’s Energy Outlook: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2012-report
- ↑ Source: UN General Assembly - International Year for Sustainable Energy for All, 11 November 2010, Sixty-fifth session, Second Committee
- ↑ Source: WHO – The Energy Access Situation in developing countries. A Review Focusing on the Least Developed Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa (November 2009)
- ↑ AGECC Report 2010: Energy for a sustainable future: http://www.un-energy.org/publications/558-agecc-report-energy-for-a-sustainable-future
- ↑ Source: UN SE4All Global Tracking Report, Data based on IEA 2012, the data is based on National household surveys; WB global electrification database, 2012 ; WHO household energy database, 2012
- ↑ Source: PPhP (2014), Patterns of Potential Human Progress, Volume 4, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures University Denver
- ↑ Source: GACC, Issue – Environmnet, [online] http://www.cleancookstoves.org/our-work/the-issues/ last accessed 11/11/2013
- ↑ Source: WHO, Indoor air pollution and health, September 2011 [online] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs292/en/
- ↑ http://www.un-energy.org/cluster/energy_access
- ↑ Source: Pauchauri et al (2013), Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030, Environmental Research Letters 8
- ↑ Source: B.J. Ruijven, J. Schers, D.P. van Vuuren: Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in devloping countries, (2012), Energy 38 386-397
