Solar Revolution - The Role of Photovoltaics for the Energy Transition
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Goadls of a sustainable energy development
The classical and superior triad of goals in energypolicy consists of
- security of energy supply
- cost effectiveness
- environmental sustainability
Thus, all forms of energy production and supply have to meet these goals. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and given the topic of this particular lecture, Photovoltaics (PV) in particular are the only means of production and supply that achieve this. Especially when regarding electrical power, RES are the only technologies currently available and economically feasible.
Given the scientific undisputed fact of global warming or so-called climate change, RES are without alternative when it comes to mitigating climate change. Data, simulations as well as reports, i.e. IPCC climate change 2013, physical science basis 2013 confirm that there exists a raise in temperatures that is to a high probability caused by anthropogenic activity.
Winter storm "Xaver" in Germany and North-western Europe and typhoon "Hayan" in the Philippines are just the latest and most recent events in a serious of natural catastrophies increasing, both in magnitude and occurency. Since the year 2005 hurricane "Kathrina", 2005, a serious of Tornados in the Mid-West, 2012, hurricane "Sandy", 2010 and the two so-called centennial floods in Germany and neighbouring countries up- and downstream such as Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia have repeatedly raised concerns about the presence and outcome of climate change. Even more so, there is an ongoing discussion about the fatalistic drought in Eastern Africa, mainly on the territory of Somalia, Kenya, Athopia, Sudan and South Sudan to be one of the first natural catastrophies mainly induced and driven by climate change.
Considering the current trend, global emissions continue to increase at present and in the near future and therewith, levels of CO2-concentration in the atmosphere. This is widely referred to as the "Business as usual"-scenario. Accordingly, until the end of the 21st century, CO2-concentration in the atmosphere according to this scenario leads to an increase in global average tmperature of at least 4 - 5K, leaving the Arctic without ice coverage in summer months from ca. 2040 onwards. These current and imminent developments support the urgency of a decarbonization of western, but also global economies and societies. In order to achieve this, it is self-evident to turn to RES as it is the most feasible, fast and cost effective path. Other strategies are less promising, as for instance, carbon trade up to this day proove.
In order to comply with a two-degree-increase-secenario, as suggested by the UN, IPCC and thus widely considered as a critical point for an "uncontrollable climate change", the lecturer in his research found it mandatory to minimize, if not end any emissions of greenhouse-gases (GHG) globally by the year 2040.
Against this backgorund, the targets and resolutions of the german governments are not suitable or sufficient to reach zero-emissions by 2040. Statistics suggest that the major part of german reduction in GHG can be atttributed to the effect of German Reunion in 1989 and the resulting phaseout of former Eastern German heavy industry. Actually, GHG-emissions in Germany remain at a constant level. In consideration of the steep increase of the share of RES in power production, the target marks of 40 - 45% until 2025, and 55 - 60% until 2035 respectively, can hardly be called ambitious and will easily be overachieved. Nevertheless, contradictions in german government's proclamation of CO2-reduction targets by 40% until the year 2040 remain. As that level of share of RES is not suffiecient if electricity demand continues to steadily increase as it steadily did so in the past.
Interstingly enough, politcal party affiliation did not have statistical significant influence on the character and speed of the annex of RES in the recent years in Germany. Therefore, that is good reason to be convinced of the irresistible abiltity of RES to assert.
Thesis I
This introduction leads up to the first thesis of the lecture, which sums up as:
The only way to mitigate climate change below two degrees is to have a Zero-Emissions-Economy by the year 2040. The fastest and most cost effective means to achieve this is to decarbonize energy production and distribution through the annex of RES.
As the latest climate conference in Warsow confirmed again, german national as well as international policy makers will not act sufficiently swift in order to put a halt to the drastic acceleration and developmet of climate change. Obviously politicians and gouvernmental institutions and organisations are for various reasons not capable of limiting climate change from top-down.
Goalfs of a sustainable energy development
Loser and brakesmen of of a fast Energy Transformation
