Solar Revolution - The Role of Photovoltaics for the Energy Transition
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Goals of a sustainable energy development
The classical and superior triad of goals in energypolicy consists of
- security of energy supply
- cost effectiveness
- environmental sustainability
Thus, all forms of energy production and supply have to meet these goals. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and given the topic of this particular lecture, Photovoltaics (PV) in particular are the only means of production and supply that achieve this. Especially when regarding electrical power, RES are the only technologies currently available and economically feasible.
Given the scientific undisputed fact of global warming or so-called climate change, RES are without alternative when it comes to mitigating climate change. Data, simulations as well as reports, i.e. IPCC climate change 2013, physical science basis 2013 confirm that there exists a raise in temperatures that is to a high probability caused by anthropogenic activity.
Winter storm "Xaver" in Germany and North-western Europe and typhoon "Hayan" in the Philippines are just the latest and most recent events in a serious of natural catastrophies increasing, both in magnitude and occurency. Since the year 2005 hurricane "Kathrina", 2005, a serious of Tornados in the Mid-West, 2012, hurricane "Sandy", 2010 and the two so-called centennial floods in Germany and neighbouring countries up- and downstream such as Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia have repeatedly raised concerns about the presence and outcome of climate change. Even more so, there is an ongoing discussion about the fatalistic drought in Eastern Africa, mainly on the territory of Somalia, Kenya, Athopia, Sudan and South Sudan to be one of the first natural catastrophies mainly induced and driven by climate change.
Considering the current trend, global emissions continue to increase at present and in the near future and therewith, levels of CO2-concentration in the atmosphere. This is widely referred to as the "Business as usual"-scenario. Accordingly, until the end of the 21st century, CO2-concentration in the atmosphere according to this scenario leads to an increase in global average tmperature of at least 4 - 5K, leaving the Arctic without ice coverage in summer months from ca. 2040 onwards. These current and imminent developments support the urgency of a decarbonization of western, but also global economies and societies. In order to achieve this, it is self-evident to turn to RES as it is the most feasible, fast and cost effective path. Other strategies are less promising, as for instance, carbon trade up to this day proove.
In order to comply with a two-degree-increase-secenario, as suggested by the UN, IPCC and thus widely considered as a critical point for an "uncontrollable climate change", the lecturer in his research found it mandatory to minimize, if not end any emissions of greenhouse-gases (GHG) globally by the year 2040.
Against this backgorund, the targets and resolutions of the german governments are not suitable or sufficient to reach zero-emissions by 2040. Statistics suggest that the major part of german reduction in GHG can be atttributed to the effect of German Reunion in 1989 and the resulting phaseout of former Eastern German heavy industry. Actually, GHG-emissions in Germany remain at a constant level. In consideration of the steep increase of the share of RES in power production, the target marks of 40 - 45% until 2025, and 55 - 60% until 2035 respectively, can hardly be called ambitious and will easily be overachieved. Nevertheless, contradictions in german government's proclamation of CO2-reduction targets by 40% until the year 2040 remain. As that level of share of RES is not sufficient if electricity demand continues to steadily increase as it did so in the past.
Interstingly enough, politcal party affiliation did not have statistical significant influence on the character and speed of the annex of RES in recent years in Germany. Therefore, this is good reason to be convinced of the irresistible abiltity of RES to assert.
Thesis I
This introduction leads up to the first thesis of the lecture, which sums up as:
The only way to mitigate climate change below two degrees is to have a Zero-Emissions-Economy by the year 2040. The fastest and most cost effective means to achieve this is to decarbonize energy production and distribution through the annex of RES.
As the latest climate conference in Warsow confirmed again, german national as well as international policy makers will not act sufficiently swift in order to put a halt to the drastic acceleration and developmet of climate change. Obviously politicians and gouvernmental institutions and organisations are for various reasons not capable of limiting climate change from top-down.
Loser and brakesmen of a fast Energy Transformation
Prejudices about the disadvantages of RES obstinately persist. Whereas a single coal-fired power plant may emit as much as three percent of german total CO2-emissions, this is not the only, even though most prominent negative environmental impact. Almost buried in oblivion today, coal mining and especially open-cast mining for lignite have tremendous and a vast variety of hazardous environmental effects. Among others ranks the detachment and emission of mercury in the process of allocation and combustion of fossil carbon. Round about 60% of all german mercury emissions originate from fossil coal-fired power plants. This quantity exceeds the amount of mercury that contain 240 000 000 energy-efficient lamps jointly. The most obvious effect of open-cast mining is the destruction of entire landscapes through the excavation of soil layers containing the fossil combustible, as subsequent damages in parts of Eastern Germany imposingly state, like in Lusatia and in the geographical region of Middle-Germany among others.
In comparison, environmental impacts of RES like windparks or open-field solar photovoltaic installations appear to be minor and only of temporary permanence. Nevertheless, arguments being brought forward, both by politicians and lobbyist do not correctly reflect this issue.
This also depicts the annex of electrical energy capacities in the current year 2013 in Germany. Whereas the annex of Photovoltaics diminished from recent record levels in 2011 and 2012 of ca. 7GW/a to actual about 3GW in 2013, newly built coal-fired power plants with an installed capacity of more than 3,4GWel are to be initially connected to the grid in the same year. This thwarts German "Energiewende" and explains worries about the continuation and success of the concept.
This appears to be even more curious as the global trend seems to turn in the opposite direction. Germany, currently the biggest market of installed PV-capacity in the world, decided to cap PV-levies when total installed capacity reaches 52GWp. PV-installation capacities for China alone are projected to top the german numbers by late 2014 to mid-2015, subsequently making it the leading market PV-market in the world. A position the country and its PV-industry already undisbutedly hold for prodaction capacity and ratio. The current official chinese target for the installed total PV-capacity in the year 2030 aggregates to 500 GWp.
With regard to the portfolios of the four dominating market participants in Germany, RWE, Vattenfall, e.on and EnBW the lack of a significant share of RES in power production and supply is evident and remains well below 3% when excluding traditional renewable sources, i.e. Hydropower. This may surprise as the insight of RES as the only alternative in electrical power production finally makes its way to political top-level bodys. In 2011, the consulting think-tank in environmental and energy issues, the council of authorized experts on environmental issues (Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen) published its report "Pathways to 100% renewable electricity supply". This report confirms the feasibilty of a 100% share of RES of electrical power supply in Germany in 2050. Therefore, it discusses different scenarios with different technologies involved and introduces innovative thinking like electrification of truck traffic on highways.
A second frequent and predominant prejudice concerning RES, applies to their potential of power generation. The roof area in Germany alone adds up to ca. 1350 km² which corresponds to 200GWp of potential PV-capacity and which is on a par to 0,4% of german territory. In comparison, current settlement- and traffic area in the year 2013 add up to more than 13% of german territory or 43 875km² in total.
With less than 30GWp installed in mid-2012 on a sunny Whitsun sunday PV generation in Germany provided up to 40% of the consumed electricity. This illustrates that with 70GWp, only twice the actual installed capacity of 35GWp, 100% renewable electrical supply already is close at hand.
Accordingly, fossil power plants and in particular carbon and nuclear power plants, because of their technolgoical restrictions do not qualify as so-called bridging-technologies into a renewable age. With the current installed PV-capacity of around 35GWp the projected tipping point of which path to choose of 50GWp is anything but far ahead.
The definetively most discussed prejudice against RES is the issue of cost-effectiveness and levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). In the period from the year 2000 - 2013 prices of electricity approximately doubled. 38% of this increase of 100% can be attributed to the RES-levy of the German EEG. The remaining 72% in price increase mainly arise from augmentation of prices of combustibles or other taxes and excise taxes. But what is generally overseen here is the point that this augmentation is well within the limits and trends of observed the inflatio-rate for that period of time. In fact prices of electricity at the European Energy Exchange (EEX) for retail costumers have begun to drop since the year 2008. This trend is ongoing today and is a direct consequence of the preference and zero marginal costs of electricity from RES, i.e. Wind and PV. Currently, the RES-levy for wind power is 8,93€ct/kWh. In comparison, Great Britain introduced a levy for electricity from Nuclear Power Plants of 11€ct/kWh with inflationary adjustment for 20 years. This example impressively adjusts the actual cost-effectiveness of electrical energy production. Even more so, it suggests the conclusion that costs and prices of electricity are anything but the decisive criteria. It seems quite obvious that rather politics and lobbying decide about energy policy and the technological path of the energy supply.
Thesis II
The traditional and dominating market players in electricity production and supply are trapped with unfit power production capacities for a changing energy framework and market environment. Attributing disproportionate LCOE to RES therefore serves as a means to the end of conserving their power and position by blocking the unlimited access of RES in the power and electricity market.
