Energy Access Figures

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In the article at hand energy access and investment needs figures from various sources, published at

different times, are summarized. This article is only meant to give a rough overview of existing reliable sources concerning energy access for electricity and cooking energy and investment needed to provide universal access to energy, on a worldwide and regional scale. The presented sources use different input data, different methodologies and different regional aggregates for their calculations and estimates, thus a comparison of calculation and estimation outcomes is difficult and is beyond the scope of this article. In order to enable the access of the original data, in the last section of this article, all the covered sources are declared. The information in this article was combiled by HERA - Poverty-oriented Basic Energy Services.


Electricity Access

Lack of access to electricity worldwide (absolute numbers)

Source Present Future

International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis
, Global Energy Assessment (IIASA
GEA 2012)[1]

2010 - 1.4 billion


International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (IEA WEO) 2013[2]

2011 – 1.257 billion

2030 – 969 million

IEA WEO 2012[3]

2010 - 1.267 billion

2030 - 991 million

IEA WEO 2011[4]

2009 - 1.317 billion

2030 – 1,036 million

Practical Action 2012[5]

2009/2010 - 1.5 billion

2030 - 900 million

United National General Assembly (UN GA) 2010[6]

2009/2010 – 1.5 billion


World Health Orgnaisation (WHO) 2009[7]

2009 - 1.5 billion


UN Secretary-General´s Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change (AGECC) 2010[8]

2009 - About 1.5 billion




Lack of access to electricity regional (absolute numbers)

Source

Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2013

2011

599 mio

2030

645 mio

2011

615 mio

2030

324 mio

2011

24 mio

2030

0 mio

IEA WEO 2012

2010

589 mio

2030

655 mio

2010

628 mio

2030

334 mio

2010

29 mio

2030

0 mio

IEA WEO 2011

2009

586 mio

2030

645 mio

2009

675 mio

2030

376 mio

2009

31 mio

2030

10 mio




Access to Electricity worldwide (% of population)

Source

Present

Future

United Nations Sustainable Energy for All (UN SE4All) 2013[9]

Total 2010: 83%

Rural 2010: 70%

Urban 2010: 95%

University Denver, Paterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) 2013[10]

Total 2010: 78%

Total 2035: 89%

Total 2060: 95%

IEA WEO 2012

Total 2010: 81%

Total 2030: 88%

UN Energy

Total ???: 72%





Access to Electricity regional (% of population)

Source

Africa

Asia

Latin America

UN SE4All 2013

Total

Sub-Saharan 32%

North Africa 99%

Caucasus a Central 100%

East Asia 98%

Oceania 25%

South Asia 75%

South East Asia 88%

West Asia 91%

Latin America and Caribbean 95%

Rural

Sub-Saharan 14%

North Africa 99%

Caucasus a Central 99%

East Asia 97%

Oceania 14%

South Asia 67%

South East Asia 80%

West Asia 78%

Latin America and Caribbean 84%

Urban

Sub-Saharan 63%

North Africa 100%

Caucasus a Central 100%

East Asia 98%

Oceania 65%

South Asia 94%

South East Asia 97%

West Asia 97%

Latin America and Caribbean 98%


Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2012

2010 32%

2030 52%

2010 82%

2030 92%

2010 94%

2030 100%

IEA WEO 2011

2009 31%

2030 51%

2009 81%

2030 91%

2009 93%

2030 98%





Access to clean cooking energy

People relying on traditional biomass worldwide (absolute numbers)

Source Present Future

IEA WEO 2013

2011 – 2.642 billion1

2030 – 2.524 billion

IEA WEO 2012

2010 - 2.588 billion

2030 - 2.595 billion

IEA WEO 2011

2009 – 2.662 billion

2030 – 2.715 billion

IIASA GEA 2012

2009 about 2.7 billion

(Based on IEA 2010)

Practical Action 2012

2010 – nearly 3 billion

2030 – 3 billion

Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC)[11]

2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion

WHO 2011[12]

2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion

UN Energy[13]

2013 (solid fuels) about 3 billion

AGECC 2010

2009 (solid fuels) appr. 3 billion

UN GA 2010

2009/2010 - 3 billion

1 Increased number of people relying on traditional use of biomass (from WEO 2012 to WEO 2013) is caused by population number upward revision for India.


People relying on traditional biomass regional (absolute numbers)

Source

Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2013

2011

696 mio

2030

881 mio

2011

1,869 mio

2030

1,582 mio

2011

68 mio

2030

53 mio

IEA WEO 2012

2010

696 mio

2030

883 mio

2010

1,814 mio

2030

1,640 mio

2010

65 mio

2030

62 mio

IEA WEO 2011

2009

653 mio

2030

918 mio

2009

1,921 mio

2030

1,769 mio

2009

85 mio

2030

79 mio


Access to non-solid-biofuels worldwide (% of population)

Source Present Future

UN SE4All 2013

Total 2010: 59%

Rural 2010: 35%

Urban 2010: 84%




Household Use of modern Forms of Energy (% of population)

Source Present Future

PPHP 2013

Total 2010: 57%

Total 2035: 78%

Total 2060: 88%


Cooking with traditional biomass worldwide (% of population)

Source Present Future

IEA WEO 2012

Total 2010: 49%

Total 2030: 39%




Access to Non-solid fuels regional (% of population)

Source

Africa

Asia

Latin America

UN SE4All 2013

Total

Sub-Saharan 19%

North Africa 100%

Caucasus a Central 85%

East Asia 55%

Oceania 31%

South Asia 40%

South East Asia 48%

West Asia 95%

Latin America and Caribbean 86%

Rural

Sub-Saharan 6%

North Africa 99%

Caucasus a Central 74%

East Asia 35%

Oceania 21%

South Asia 23%

South East Asia 27%

West Asia 86%

Latin America and Caribbean 57%

Urban

Sub-Saharan 42%

North Africa 100%

Caucasus a Central 98%

East Asia 76%

Oceania 73%

South Asia 78%

South East Asia 77%

West Asia 99%

Latin America and Caribbean 94%



Cooking with traditional biomass (% of population)

Source

Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2012

2010 81%

2030 65%

2010 51%

2030 39%

2010 14%

2030 11%

IEA WEO 2011

2009 78%

2030 67%

2009 54%

2030 41%

2009 19%

2030 14%




Necessary Investment for Universal Access to Modern Energy Services

Additional average annual investment needed for total/universal energy access

Source

Annually

comments

UN SE4All 2013

33.9 billion USD



IEA WEO 2011

from 2010 34 billion USD

(in total 1 trillion USD (296 billion USD in new policies) 640 billion USD)


AGECC 2010

35-40 billion USD


Pachauri et al 2012[14]

65 – 86 billion USD

(only grid–access and LPG-like cooking)




Electricity

Additional average annual investment needed for total universal electricity access regional, in billion USD

Source

Global

Africa

Asia

Latin America

UN SE4All 2013

30.1 bn USD

SSA 19.1 bn USD

EA & Oce 0.4 bn USD

SA 9.2 bn USD

SEA 1.3 bn USD


IEA WEO 2011

30.5 bn USD

SSA 18.5 bn USD

Dev. A. 11.5 bn USD

only India 6.4 bn USD

0.3 bn USD

Ruijven et al. 2012[15]

From 2010 - 2030

238 – 400 bn USD

SSA

6.1 – 10.2 bn USD

Asia

1.4 – 2.5 bn USD

LA

4.3 – 7.1 bn USD

SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia



'Electricity Access for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology'

Source Technology Investment needed per year

IEA WEO 2011

In Total

On-grid electrification

Mini-grid electrification

Off-grid electrification

30.5 billion USD/year

11 billion USD/year

12 billion USD/year

7 billion USD/year




Cooking Energy

Additional average annual investment needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking facilities, regional, in billion USD

Source

Global

Africa

Asia

Latin America

UN SE4All 2013

3.8 bn USD

SSA 1.1 bn USD

ME & NAf 0.01 bn USD


EA & Oce 0.9 bn USD

SA 1.2 bn USD

SEA 0.4 bn USD

0.2 bn USD

IEA WEO 2011

3.5 bn USD

SSA 1.1 bn USD

Dev. A. 2.3 bn USD

only India 0.8 bn USD

only China 0.8 bn USD

0.2 bn USD

SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia, ME: Middle East, NAf: North Africa


Clean Cooking Facilities for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology

Source Technology Necessary annual investment

IEA WEO 2011

  • In Total
  • LPG Cookstoves
  • Biomass systems
  • Biomass Cookstoves
  • 3.5 billion USD/year
  • 0.9 billion USD/year
  • 1.8 billion USD/year
  • 0.8 billion USD/year


Further Reading

Access to modern energy - energypedia

Sources

  1. Source: IIASA GEA 2012: Global Energy Assessment- Towards a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  2. Source: OECD/IEA (2013): World Energy Outlook 2013
  3. Source: OECD/IEA (2012): World Energy Outlook 2012 http://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdf
  4. Source: OECD/IEA (2011): Energy for All – Financing Access for the Poor. Special early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2011. Updated estimates of the OECD/IEA 2010fckLRhttp://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdffckLR
  5. Source: Practical Action (2012): Poor People’s Energy Outlook: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2012-report
  6. Source: UN General Assembly - International Year for Sustainable Energy for All, 11 November 2010, Sixty-fifth session, Second Committee
  7. Source: WHO – The Energy Access Situation in developing countries. A Review Focusing on the Least Developed Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa (November 2009)
  8. AGECC Report 2010: Energy for a sustainable future: http://www.un-energy.org/publications/558-agecc-report-energy-for-a-sustainable-future
  9. Source: UN SE4All Global Tracking Report, Data based on IEA 2012, the data is based on National household surveys; WB global electrification database, 2012 ; WHO household energy database, 2012
  10. Source: PPhP (2014), Patterns of Potential Human Progress, Volume 4, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures University Denver
  11. Source: GACC, Issue – Environmnet, [online] http://www.cleancookstoves.org/our-work/the-issues/ last accessed 11/11/2013
  12. Source: WHO, Indoor air pollution and health, September 2011 [online] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs292/en/
  13. http://www.un-energy.org/cluster/energy_access
  14. Source: Pauchauri et al (2013), Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030, Environmental Research Letters 8
  15. Source: B.J. Ruijven, J. Schers, D.P. van Vuuren: Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in devloping countries, (2012), Energy 38 386-397