Electrification Planning for Off-Grid Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Advancing Energy Access

Introduction

This page summarises Lwakatare et al. (2024), an open-access techno-economic study that applies electrification planning methods to off-grid communities in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper uses scenario modelling to examine capacity upgrades, battery sizing, LCOE, diesel displacement and the economics of staged expansion, with concrete examples applicable to planners and project developers.

Methodology

Techno-economic modelling comparing scenarios of initial sizing, modular expansion, and technology mixes (PV + storage ± diesel). Metrics evaluated include Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), diesel fuel displacement, carbon emissions and net present cost under different demand growth scenarios.

Key Results

Modular expansion reduces risk of oversizing and improves financial performance when demand growth is uncertain. LCOE sensitivity: LCOE is most sensitive to battery replacement costs and discount rate; longer battery life and lower financing costs materially reduce LCOE. Productive use impact: Encouraging productive uses of electricity shifts load shape, improves revenue streams and lowers LCOE per unit of useful energy delivered. Diesel displacement: Scenarios with adequate storage and PV penetration reduce diesel-run hours significantly, improving emissions and operating costs.

Recommendations for Practitioners

Adopt incremental design pathways with trigger-based capacity upgrades tied to measured demand thresholds. Include battery lifecycle costs in early procurement decisions and consider higher-grade batteries where climate stresses reduce lifespan. Integrate productive-use promotion and local enterprise support into project plans to increase demand and improve commercial viability. Use scenario modelling as standard practice for project appraisal to account for demand uncertainty and policy changes.

Policy Implications

Regulators should allow flexible tariff structures that enable cost-recovery while protecting vulnerable customers. Electrification planners should institutionalise inclusion of mini-grid options alongside grid extension in national electrification strategies. Funding mechanisms should incorporate support for both CAPEX and long-term O&M/asset replacement.

References

Lwakatare B, Vyavahare P, Mehta K, Zörner W (2024). Electrification Planning for Off-Grid Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Advancing Energy Access. Energies (MDPI). (Open access, CC BY 4.0).

Attribution & Licence

This page summarises Lwakatare et al. (2024). The original article is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0).