Evaluating Electricity Access Programmes: Methods, Indicators and Implementation Lessons

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Introduction

Expanding electricity access requires more than constructing power infrastructure and connecting new consumers. An electrification programme must also ensure that electricity services are available when needed, sufficiently reliable, affordable to users and sustainable over time.

For governments, development finance institutions, utilities and implementing organisations, this creates an important question: how can the effectiveness of an electricity-access programme be established?

Traditional programme reporting often emphasises physical outputs, such as the number of connections established, kilometres of distribution lines constructed, solar systems installed or communities reached. Although these indicators are important, they do not necessarily show whether the intended beneficiaries receive useful electricity services or whether those services continue after the programme has ended.

A household may be counted as connected even when electricity is available for only a few hours each day. A mini-grid may reach its construction and connection targets but subsequently experience financial difficulties because electricity demand is too low. A solar home system may be installed successfully but become unusable when its battery fails and replacement services are unavailable.

These examples demonstrate the difference between delivering project outputs and achieving lasting development outcomes.

Evaluating electricity-access programmes therefore requires an approach that examines the entire chain of implementation, from policy and investment decisions to infrastructure delivery, consumer connections, service quality, financial performance and long-term sustainability.

The World Bank Group's Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) examined these issues in its 2026 evaluation, An Evaluation of the World Bank Group's Support for Electricity Access in Sub-Saharan Africa, Fiscal Years 2015–25. The evaluation assessed World Bank Group support across grid and off-grid infrastructure, policy reform, utility performance and private-sector participation. It drew on portfolio analysis, country case studies and stakeholder interviews to identify what worked, where implementation encountered difficulties and which factors influenced programme results.

This article develops a broader framework for evaluating electricity-access programmes. It combines evidence from the World Bank evaluation with international energy-access measurement approaches, financing research and implementation experience. It explains the distinction between outputs and outcomes, identifies useful evaluation methods and indicators, examines common implementation weaknesses and provides practical guidance for improving programme performance.

Why Evaluate Electricity Access Programmes?

Evaluation is necessary to establish whether investments and interventions are achieving their intended objectives and whether the resources committed are producing meaningful benefits.

Electricity-access programmes often involve several institutions, funding sources, technologies and implementation stages. Their results may depend on factors beyond the construction of electricity infrastructure, including utility performance, consumer income, regulatory conditions, local demand and the availability of maintenance services.

Without systematic evaluation, programme managers may identify progress through expenditure and construction reports while overlooking weaknesses that threaten the long-term performance of the intervention.

Establishing whether programme objectives have been achieved

An electricity-access programme may have several objectives, including:

  • Connecting households that do not have electricity.
  • Improving the quality and reliability of existing electricity supply.
  • Extending electricity services to schools, healthcare facilities and other public institutions.
  • Increasing access through mini-grids and standalone renewable energy systems.
  • Improving affordability for low-income consumers.
  • Supporting productive uses of electricity in agriculture, commerce and small industries.
  • Strengthening the financial and operational performance of electricity utilities.
  • Increasing private-sector investment in electricity infrastructure and services.

Each objective requires appropriate indicators and evidence.

For example, a programme intended to improve electricity reliability should not be evaluated solely by counting new connections. It should also examine the frequency and duration of interruptions, hours of supply and the ability of the electricity system to meet consumer demand.

Similarly, a programme supporting rural economic development should investigate whether electricity is being used by agricultural enterprises, businesses and public institutions, rather than assuming that connections automatically generate productive activity.

Identifying implementation problems

Evaluation can reveal why a programme is not delivering its expected results.

A project may experience delays because of procurement difficulties, inadequate institutional capacity, land-access problems, regulatory uncertainty or insufficient financing. An off-grid programme may struggle because household demand is lower than anticipated or because the implementing company cannot provide maintenance services.

Identifying these problems early allows programme managers to adjust implementation arrangements before they become more expensive or difficult to resolve.

Improving the allocation of financial resources

Public and development finance for electricity access is limited relative to the investment required.

Evaluation helps governments and financing institutions determine whether resources are being directed towards interventions that address the most significant access constraints.

For example, extending a distribution network may be appropriate for a densely populated settlement close to existing infrastructure, while a mini-grid or standalone system may be more suitable for dispersed communities.

However, the choice should be based on evidence concerning cost, expected demand, service requirements, affordability and long-term operating arrangements.

Evaluation also helps determine whether public subsidies, concessional finance and private investment are being used effectively.

Demonstrating accountability and development impact

Electricity-access programmes frequently receive funding from government budgets, development banks, bilateral donors, climate funds and private investors.

These institutions need evidence that funding has been used appropriately and that the programme has delivered its intended results.

A credible evaluation provides information on expenditure, implementation performance, beneficiary reach, service quality and sustainability. It can also establish whether programme outcomes are consistent with national electrification strategies and broader development objectives.

Understanding the Results Chain of an Electricity-Access Programme

An effective evaluation begins with a clear understanding of how a programme is expected to produce results.

A results chain describes the relationship between the resources committed to an intervention, the activities undertaken, the outputs delivered and the outcomes expected.

For electricity-access programmes, this relationship can be represented through five levels.

1. Inputs

Inputs are the financial, technical, human and institutional resources required to implement a programme.

Examples include:

  • Government budget allocations and development finance.
  • Grants, concessional loans, guarantees and private investment.
  • Engineers, project managers and technical specialists.
  • Land, equipment, materials and construction resources.
  • Regulatory and institutional arrangements.
  • Technical assistance and implementation support.

Evaluation at this level examines whether sufficient resources were available, whether they were released on time and whether they were used according to programme requirements.

2. Activities

Activities are the interventions undertaken using programme resources.

Examples include:

  • Preparing national or local electrification plans.
  • Conducting geospatial and demand assessments.
  • Developing electricity generation and distribution infrastructure.
  • Installing solar home systems and mini-grids.
  • Extending distribution networks.
  • Providing household connection subsidies.
  • Strengthening utility management and operational capacity.
  • Developing regulations for private electricity service providers.
  • Training local technicians and establishing maintenance arrangements.

Evaluation examines whether these activities were implemented as planned, whether they reached their intended beneficiaries and whether implementation was consistent with technical and institutional requirements.

3. Outputs

Outputs are the immediate and measurable products of programme activities.

Examples include:

  • Kilometres of electricity distribution lines constructed.
  • Number of transformers installed.
  • Number of mini-grids commissioned.
  • Number of solar home systems distributed and installed.
  • Number of households and public institutions connected.
  • Number of utility personnel trained.
  • Number of regulations, policies or implementation guidelines adopted.

Outputs are relatively straightforward to count and are commonly included in project progress reports.

However, an output does not necessarily demonstrate that the intended service or development benefit has been achieved.

4. Outcomes

Outcomes are the changes that occur when the programme's outputs begin to deliver the intended services.

Examples include:

  • Increased hours of electricity availability.
  • Reduced frequency and duration of outages.
  • Improved household access to electricity.
  • Lower connection costs for underserved consumers.
  • Increased electricity consumption among connected households.
  • Improved electricity supply to schools and health facilities.
  • Greater use of electricity by agricultural and commercial enterprises.
  • Improved utility revenue collection and operational performance.

Outcomes provide stronger evidence of programme effectiveness because they examine what changes for consumers and service providers.

5. Long-term impacts

Impacts are the wider economic, social and environmental changes to which electricity access may contribute.

Examples include:

  • Improved household welfare and living conditions.
  • Increased productivity and business development.
  • Better delivery of healthcare and education services.
  • Employment creation.
  • Increased agricultural processing and income generation.
  • Reduced dependence on polluting or inefficient energy sources.
  • Greater resilience of essential services.

Impact evaluation requires careful analysis because changes in employment, income, health and education are influenced by many factors beyond electricity access.

An evaluator should therefore avoid attributing every positive development in an electrified community directly to the electricity programme.

Results chain example

The following example illustrates how the different results levels relate to one another.

Results level Rural solar mini-grid programme example
Inputs Grant funding, private investment, engineering personnel, solar equipment and community engagement.
Activities Conducting feasibility studies, designing the system, installing generation and distribution equipment, connecting customers and establishing an operating company.
Outputs A commissioned mini-grid, functioning distribution network and agreed number of household and business connections.
Outcomes Increased hours of electricity supply, improved reliability, affordable electricity services and increased electricity use by local enterprises.
Long-term impacts Improved business productivity, increased income opportunities, better public services and improved household welfare.

The results chain helps evaluators identify where a programme is performing well and where problems occur.

For instance, if a mini-grid is constructed and commissioned but businesses do not connect, the infrastructure output may have been achieved while the expected economic outcome remains unrealised.

Defining What Counts as Electricity Access

One of the most important considerations in programme evaluation is the definition of electricity access.

A simple connected-versus-not-connected measure provides an incomplete understanding of the electricity services received by consumers.

The World Bank's Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) developed the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF) to measure energy access through several service attributes rather than a binary classification.

The framework recognises that electricity access is a spectrum, with different levels of service quality and capacity.

The electricity-access dimensions considered in the framework include:

  • Capacity: whether the available electricity can support the power requirements of the consumer.
  • Availability: whether electricity is available for sufficient periods and at the times it is needed.
  • Reliability: whether the supply is consistent and interruptions are limited.
  • Quality: whether electricity is delivered at an acceptable technical standard, including appropriate voltage and frequency.
  • Affordability: whether consumers can pay for the electricity service without excessive financial difficulty.
  • Formality: whether the connection and electricity service are legally recognised.
  • Health and safety: whether the electricity supply and associated equipment can be used safely.

The MTF uses a scale from Tier 0 to Tier 5, with higher tiers representing progressively better electricity services.

The framework is technology-neutral. It can be applied to electricity supplied through the national grid, mini-grids and standalone systems.

This is particularly important when evaluating programmes that combine different technologies. A solar home system should not automatically be considered an adequate substitute for a grid connection without examining the electricity services it provides.

Measuring electricity access as a service

Consider two households that are both recorded as having electricity access.

Household A receives electricity from the national grid but experiences frequent outages and voltage fluctuations. Its electricity consumption is limited because supply is unreliable and household income is insufficient to purchase additional appliances.

Household B receives electricity from a well-maintained solar home system that provides dependable lighting, phone charging and television services, but cannot support high-power appliances.

Both households have electricity access, but the nature, capacity and quality of their services are different.

A useful evaluation should identify these differences rather than treating the households as having equivalent access.

The MTF therefore provides a more informative basis for assessing the quality of electricity services and identifying the specific constraints preventing consumers from moving to higher levels of access.

Recent evidence on access quality

The World Bank's 2026 publication, The Multi-Tier Framework for Energy Access: Insights and Impact from a Decade of Surveys, synthesises findings from 29 surveys conducted across 27 countries between 2016 and 2025.

The research provides evidence on how electricity access is experienced by households and demonstrates the value of collecting information beyond connection status.

It also reinforces the importance of distinguishing between initial access and the quality of electricity services received.

For programme evaluators, this means that household surveys, service-performance records and consumer expenditure data should complement infrastructure and connection reports.

The World Bank Group Evaluation: Evidence from 2015–2025

The 2026 Independent Evaluation Group assessment provides a substantial evidence base for understanding the performance of electricity-access interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The evaluation examined the World Bank Group's support during fiscal years 2015–2025, including interventions by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).

It considered policy and regulatory support, grid and off-grid infrastructure, utility performance, private-sector participation and collaboration with development partners.

During the evaluation period, the World Bank Group committed approximately US$41.9 billion to electricity-access support in the region.

The evaluation reported that World Bank operations enabled new direct electricity access for approximately 70.9 million people, exceeding the combined target of approximately 45.3 million.

However, the evaluation also found that the reported access gains did not translate consistently into improvements in reliability and affordability.

This distinction is important. The evaluation demonstrates that large infrastructure and connection programmes can exceed their immediate targets while leaving significant weaknesses in the quality and sustainability of electricity services.

Why the evaluation matters

The evaluation is particularly useful because it examines implementation experience across multiple countries and programme types rather than relying only on theoretical recommendations.

Its findings show that programme performance is influenced by several connected factors:

  • Political ownership and government commitment.
  • Capacity of implementing institutions.
  • Affordability of electricity services.
  • Coordination of investments across the electricity value chain.
  • Financial and operational performance of utilities.
  • Availability of private capital and appropriate risk-sharing arrangements.
  • Productive demand for electricity.
  • Regulatory frameworks governing grid and off-grid providers.
  • Quality of programme monitoring and performance data.

The evaluation also highlights an important limitation in the evidence base: many projects did not systematically measure whether new connections resulted in affordable and reliable electricity services.

Only 7 percent of closed projects monitored any electricity cost-related indicators.

This finding illustrates why programme evaluation systems need to be designed before implementation begins, rather than relying on the information that happens to be available when a project closes.

The evaluation covers household electricity access and is not a comprehensive assessment of all commercial and industrial electrification investments. Its findings should be interpreted within that scope.

Common Evaluation Questions

A well-designed electricity-access evaluation should answer questions at different stages of the programme results chain.

Evaluation area Questions to investigate
Relevance Does the programme address the actual electricity needs of the target population? Is the selected technology and delivery model appropriate?
Effectiveness Were the planned outputs delivered? Did the programme achieve its intended service and access outcomes?
Efficiency Were resources used economically? Were implementation costs, delays and procurement arrangements reasonable?
Equity and inclusion Did the programme reach low-income households, rural communities, women-led businesses and underserved groups?
Sustainability Can the electricity systems and services continue operating after the initial project funding ends?
Coherence Is the programme aligned with national electrification plans, utility investment strategies and the activities of other development partners?
Impact Did electricity access contribute to improvements in household welfare, productive activity and public services?

These evaluation dimensions help establish whether a programme is not only completing its planned activities but also delivering the services and development benefits for which it was established.

Methods for Evaluating Electricity-Access Programmes

The appropriate evaluation method depends on the programme's objectives, implementation stage, available data and the questions that need to be answered.

A programme evaluation may combine quantitative analysis, qualitative research, technical inspections, financial assessments and direct engagement with electricity consumers.

Using several methods is important because no single data source provides a complete understanding of programme performance.

Baseline and endline assessments

A baseline assessment establishes the conditions before programme implementation begins. It provides the reference point against which subsequent changes can be measured.

For an electricity-access programme, a baseline assessment may document:

  • The number and proportion of households without electricity.
  • Existing electricity sources and household energy expenditure.
  • Average hours of electricity availability.
  • Frequency and duration of power interruptions.
  • Household income and ability to afford electricity.
  • Existing electricity infrastructure and network condition.
  • Availability of electricity for schools, health facilities and businesses.
  • Existing productive activities and potential electricity demand.
  • Institutional and utility performance.
  • Existing regulatory and financing arrangements.

An endline assessment collects comparable information after implementation or at the end of a defined evaluation period.

Comparing baseline and endline information can reveal changes in access, electricity consumption, service quality, expenditure and other programme outcomes.

For example, a rural electrification programme may record the number of newly connected households, but a household survey could also establish whether electricity expenditure has become more affordable and whether households are using electricity for additional services.

Baseline and endline assessments should use consistent definitions, sampling procedures and measurement methods. Otherwise, differences between the two assessments may reflect changes in data collection rather than actual programme results.

Household and consumer surveys

Household surveys are useful for understanding how electricity services are experienced by consumers.

They can collect information that is not always available from utility or project records, including:

  • Whether households have electricity connections.
  • The source of electricity and whether alternative sources are also used.
  • Hours of electricity availability.
  • Frequency of outages and service interruptions.
  • Voltage-related problems.
  • Household electricity expenditure.
  • Connection charges and payment arrangements.
  • Appliances owned and electricity services used.
  • Satisfaction with electricity services.
  • Reasons for limited consumption or discontinuation of service.

The World Bank and World Health Organization's guide, Measuring Energy Access: A Guide to Collecting Data Using the Core Questions on Household Energy Use, provides guidance for incorporating energy-access questions into household surveys.

Where appropriate, survey instruments can be aligned with the Multi-Tier Framework to allow more systematic assessment of electricity service quality.

Utility and service-provider data

Utilities and electricity service providers hold operational information that can help establish whether electricity systems are functioning as intended.

Relevant information may include:

  • Number of active customer connections.
  • Electricity supplied and electricity sold.
  • Technical and commercial distribution losses.
  • Average duration and frequency of interruptions.
  • Customer complaints and resolution times.
  • Metering and billing performance.
  • Revenue collection rates.
  • Operating and maintenance expenditure.
  • Equipment failures and repair times.
  • Customer disconnections and reconnections.

For distribution utilities, performance indicators such as the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) and System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) can help measure the duration and frequency of interruptions.

SAIDI measures the average total duration of interruptions experienced by customers over a specified period. SAIFI measures the average number of interruptions experienced by customers over that period.

These indicators can be useful for comparing service reliability across networks and monitoring changes over time. However, they should be interpreted alongside the coverage and quality of outage records, particularly where monitoring systems are incomplete.

For mini-grid and standalone-system programmes, equivalent operational indicators may include system availability, equipment downtime, battery performance, repair response time and the proportion of installed systems remaining functional.

Technical inspections and infrastructure verification

Physical inspections help determine whether infrastructure has been constructed, installed and maintained according to the programme's technical requirements.

Inspections may examine:

  • Quality of construction and installation.
  • Condition of distribution lines and electrical equipment.
  • Transformer and protection-system performance.
  • Solar photovoltaic system output.
  • Battery condition and storage capacity.
  • Meter functionality and accuracy.
  • Earthing, wiring and electrical safety.
  • Availability of maintenance equipment and spare parts.
  • Compliance with technical and environmental standards.

Technical inspections are particularly important when reported installation or commissioning figures are not supported by independent verification.

For example, a project may report that 5,000 solar home systems were distributed. Physical verification and household visits can establish how many were actually installed, remain functional and are still being used.

Financial and economic assessment

Financial evaluation examines whether the programme and its electricity service providers can sustain their operations.

It may consider:

  • Initial capital expenditure.
  • Operating and maintenance costs.
  • Electricity tariffs and connection charges.
  • Revenue collection and payment performance.
  • Subsidies and public-sector contributions.
  • Debt obligations and financing costs.
  • Equipment replacement requirements.
  • Cost of electricity supplied.
  • Ability to recover operating costs.
  • Long-term financial viability.

Economic evaluation considers the wider costs and benefits to society rather than focusing only on the financial returns received by the project developer or utility.

Depending on the programme, economic analysis may consider changes in household expenditure, business productivity, agricultural output, time use, public-service delivery and environmental impacts.

The financial and economic perspectives should be distinguished. A mini-grid may have strong social benefits but insufficient revenue to operate commercially without public support. Conversely, a financially attractive project may not reach the poorest households unless affordability measures are included.

Interviews and stakeholder consultations

Interviews and consultations help explain why programme results occurred.

Relevant stakeholders may include:

  • Government ministries and rural electrification agencies.
  • Electricity regulators and utilities.
  • Mini-grid and solar home system developers.
  • Project financiers and development partners.
  • Local government authorities.
  • Community leaders and electricity consumers.
  • Schools, healthcare facilities and local businesses.
  • Civil-society and community organisations.

These consultations can reveal implementation challenges that are not adequately documented in formal project reports.

For example, a mini-grid project may have been delayed because community consultations were inadequate, land arrangements were unresolved or the tariff structure was not understood by potential customers.

Stakeholder evidence should be compared with documentary, technical and financial information rather than treated as sufficient proof on its own.

Comparative and contribution analysis

Comparative analysis examines differences between projects, communities, technologies or implementation approaches.

For example, evaluators may compare:

  • Grid extension and mini-grid delivery costs.
  • Mini-grid projects with different demand profiles.
  • Household connection rates across income groups.
  • Utility performance before and after reform.
  • Electricity service quality across rural and urban locations.
  • Projects using different financing instruments.

Where suitable data and research designs are available, evaluation may use comparison groups, matched samples or quasi-experimental methods to estimate the effects of an intervention.

Contribution analysis is useful where electricity access is delivered alongside other development interventions. It examines whether the programme plausibly contributed to observed outcomes and identifies the other factors that influenced those results.

For example, an increase in agricultural production following rural electrification may also be influenced by improved roads, agricultural extension services, rainfall, market prices and access to credit.

A credible evaluation should identify these influences rather than attributing the entire change to electricity access.

Selecting Indicators for Programme Evaluation

Indicators translate programme objectives into measurable information. They should be selected during programme design and linked directly to the intended results.

An indicator should have a clear definition, measurement method, data source, reporting frequency and responsible institution.

The following framework provides examples of indicators that may be adapted to different electricity-access programmes.

Evaluation area Example indicators Potential data source
Access expansion Number of new connections; number of people gaining access; percentage of target households reached Utility records, project databases, household surveys
Availability Average hours of electricity supplied per day; percentage of time electricity is available Smart meters, utility records, household surveys
Reliability SAIDI; SAIFI; system downtime; frequency of service interruptions Utility operational records, outage logs, consumer surveys
Technical quality Voltage compliance; frequency stability; equipment failure rate Power-quality measurements, technical inspections
Affordability Connection cost; monthly electricity expenditure as a share of household income; disconnection rates Household surveys, tariff records, payment data
Consumption and capacity Electricity consumption per customer; available power capacity; appliance ownership Metering records, household and business surveys
Equity and inclusion Connections among low-income households; access by rural communities; participation of women-led enterprises Disaggregated project data, household surveys
Productive use Number of enterprises connected; electricity consumption by businesses; number of productive-use appliances in operation Business surveys, meter data, project records
Financial sustainability Revenue collection rate; operating-cost recovery; maintenance expenditure; arrears Audited financial statements, utility accounts
Operational sustainability Percentage of systems functional; maintenance response time; availability of replacement equipment Technical inspections, operator records
Institutional performance Procurement completion time; project implementation delays; regulatory approvals; staff capacity Project reports, institutional records, interviews

Indicators should be selected according to the programme's purpose. A household electrification programme, for example, will require different outcome indicators from a programme focused on improving electricity services to hospitals or supporting rural industrial development.

Establishing baselines and targets

Every indicator should have a baseline value and a target where appropriate.

A programme that intends to reduce average outage duration should first establish the existing duration and frequency of interruptions.

Similarly, a programme intended to improve affordability should document existing connection costs, tariffs and household expenditure before introducing subsidies or payment reforms.

Targets should be realistic and based on available evidence, technical feasibility, budget constraints and implementation capacity.

Unrealistic targets can encourage project managers to prioritise easily counted outputs while neglecting service quality and sustainability.

Disaggregating programme results

Aggregate results can conceal differences between beneficiary groups.

For example, a programme may report a large number of new connections while most benefits accrue to households that are already relatively close to existing infrastructure.

Evaluation should therefore disaggregate results where data allow, including by:

  • Rural and urban location.
  • Household income or wealth group.
  • Gender of household head or business ownership.
  • Geographic region.
  • Settlement type and population density.
  • Grid, mini-grid and standalone electricity supply.
  • Public institutions and private consumers.
  • Fragility, displacement or conflict-affected settings.

Disaggregation helps establish whether programmes are reaching the communities and consumers for whom public intervention is most necessary.

Evaluating Grid-Based Electrification

Grid-based electrification involves extending or improving electricity networks to provide service to additional households, businesses and public institutions.

Evaluation should consider the complete chain of infrastructure and service delivery, rather than measuring the success of a project solely by the length of network constructed.

Assessing network expansion

Important evaluation questions include:

  • Were the planned distribution networks completed?
  • Were the intended communities connected?
  • Were household connections affordable?
  • Was sufficient generation and transmission capacity available?
  • Could the distribution network accommodate additional demand?
  • Were transformers, meters and protection equipment installed appropriately?
  • Were the connections functional after commissioning?

A project that constructs medium-voltage infrastructure without completing the low-voltage connections required by households may achieve an important engineering output without delivering the intended consumer access.

The evaluation should establish whether the infrastructure reaches the final users and supports actual electricity consumption.

Assessing reliability improvements

Network expansion should be accompanied by adequate investment in generation, transmission, distribution and maintenance.

A distribution network may be physically extended but continue to experience frequent interruptions if the electricity supply is insufficient or upstream infrastructure is weak.

Evaluators should therefore examine investments across the electricity value chain.

Relevant indicators include hours of supply, SAIDI, SAIFI, voltage quality, technical losses and the time required to restore service after interruptions.

Assessing connection affordability

The cost of connecting a household may include application charges, wiring, meters, service lines, deposits and other associated expenses.

These costs can discourage households from connecting even when electricity infrastructure is available.

Evaluation should examine whether connection subsidies, flexible payment arrangements and other affordability measures have increased actual connection rates among lower-income households.

It should also assess whether the subsidy is adequately funded and whether the utility can continue providing the service without accumulating unsustainable financial losses.

Evaluating Mini-Grid Programmes

Mini-grid programmes require a combination of technical, financial, institutional and market assessments.

A mini-grid may be successfully constructed and commissioned but still fail to achieve its intended development outcomes if electricity demand is insufficient, tariffs are unaffordable or the operator cannot maintain the system.

Feasibility and demand assessment

Before construction, programme designers should establish whether the proposed mini-grid can provide an appropriate and sustainable electricity service.

A feasibility assessment should examine:

  • Population size and settlement distribution.
  • Existing electricity sources and household demand.
  • Expected commercial and institutional demand.
  • Productive-use opportunities.
  • Available renewable energy resources.
  • Seasonal changes in demand and energy availability.
  • Distance from the existing grid and potential future grid arrival.
  • Expected capital and operating costs.
  • Affordability and willingness to pay.
  • Regulatory and licensing requirements.
  • Operator capacity and maintenance arrangements.

Demand assessment should distinguish between existing electricity consumption and demand that may emerge after electrification.

Projected demand should be supported by surveys, customer interviews, business assessments and realistic estimates of appliance uptake.

Assessing productive demand

Productive-use demand can improve the financial prospects of mini-grid projects by increasing electricity consumption and creating more stable revenue.

Potential productive users include agricultural processors, irrigation operators, cold-storage businesses, workshops, retailers, telecommunications facilities and other local enterprises.

However, the existence of an economic activity does not automatically mean that it will become a viable electricity customer.

Evaluators should investigate:

  • Whether the enterprise is operational and financially viable.
  • Its actual electricity requirements.
  • The cost of electrical equipment.
  • Whether financing is available for equipment purchases.
  • Whether the electricity tariff is affordable.
  • Whether markets exist for the goods or services produced.
  • Whether electricity use will increase productivity or reduce costs.

Demand-stimulation activities may include equipment financing, business development support, technical training and assistance in connecting productive users to electricity services.

Assessing tariffs and revenue models

Mini-grid operators need a revenue model that can support operations, maintenance and investment recovery.

Evaluation should examine the relationship between tariffs, electricity demand, customer affordability and operating costs.

Relevant indicators include customer payment rates, electricity consumption, average revenue per connection, operating expenditure and the proportion of costs recovered through electricity sales.

Tariffs should not be evaluated only from the operator's perspective. The programme should also assess whether consumers can afford the electricity services provided and whether tariff arrangements are consistent with national regulations.

Assessing operational performance

A mini-grid evaluation should establish whether the system remains functional and whether customers receive the expected service.

Indicators may include:

  • Percentage of time the mini-grid is operational.
  • Number and duration of interruptions.
  • Electricity generated and supplied.
  • Distribution losses.
  • Battery condition and replacement requirements.
  • Renewable energy contribution.
  • Diesel or other backup fuel consumption, where applicable.
  • Maintenance response time.
  • Number of active customers.
  • Customer complaints and satisfaction.

Where systems include battery storage, evaluation should also examine charging and discharge performance, battery management and the availability of replacement equipment.

Evaluating future grid arrival arrangements

The arrival of the national grid can affect the commercial and operational arrangements of an existing mini-grid.

Programme agreements and regulations should establish how the mini-grid will be treated if grid extension occurs.

Possible arrangements include interconnection, continued isolated operation, transfer of assets or compensation under an agreed framework.

Evaluators should examine whether these arrangements were established before investment and whether they provide sufficient clarity for operators, investors, regulators and consumers.

Evaluating Standalone Solar and Household Electrification Programmes

Standalone solar systems are frequently used to reach households that are geographically dispersed or unlikely to receive grid connections in the near term.

Evaluation should examine the quality and functionality of the installed systems, the electricity services they provide and the arrangements for long-term maintenance.

Important indicators include:

  • Number of systems distributed and actually installed.
  • Percentage of installed systems still functional.
  • Available power and daily energy capacity.
  • Hours of electricity availability.
  • Battery performance and replacement rates.
  • Number of appliances supported.
  • Household electricity expenditure.
  • Availability of after-sales services.
  • Customer satisfaction.
  • Product compliance with applicable quality standards.

The distinction between systems distributed and systems in use is particularly important.

A programme may report thousands of systems distributed, but some may remain uninstalled, become defective or be abandoned because of inadequate service support.

Evaluation should therefore include follow-up visits and, where possible, verification of system functionality.

Payment models and consumer protection

Some standalone solar programmes use pay-as-you-go arrangements that allow customers to make regular payments towards a system rather than paying the full purchase price upfront.

Evaluation of these arrangements should consider payment affordability, service continuity, customer understanding of contract terms, ownership conditions and procedures for resolving complaints.

Where systems can be remotely disabled after missed payments, consumer protection and transparent payment policies are particularly important.

A programme should not count a household as having sustained electricity access simply because a solar system was initially delivered.

What Implementation Experience Reveals: Selected Country Examples

Programme evaluations become more useful when findings are connected to actual implementation experience.

The World Bank Group's 2026 evaluation includes country-level evidence illustrating how demand, institutional capacity, regulatory conditions and programme design can influence the results of electricity-access interventions.

The following examples demonstrate why electrification programmes should be evaluated in their specific implementation contexts.

Nigeria: Mini-grid implementation and commercially viable demand

Nigeria's World Bank-supported Nigeria Electrification Project provides an example of a mini-grid programme that exceeded its planned connection targets.

The IEG evaluation reported that the project delivered 146,517 connections against a target of 60,000.

The evaluation attributed the stronger performance partly to the selection of accessible and commercially viable locations with relatively high demand.

This experience highlights the importance of site selection and realistic demand assessment in mini-grid development.

A programme should not select project locations solely because they lack electricity. It should also examine settlement characteristics, economic activities, potential customers, electricity consumption requirements and the feasibility of operating the system.

The Nigerian example demonstrates that location selection and demand assumptions can significantly influence the implementation performance of decentralised electricity programmes.

Rwanda: The effect of settlement characteristics on mini-grid viability

The IEG evaluation reported that planned mini-grid components in Rwanda failed to attract sufficient private-sector interest and were subsequently dropped.

One of the factors identified was the National Electrification Plan's focus on sparsely populated rural areas with relatively few enterprises.

This illustrates a potential challenge in designing mini-grid programmes around communities where the expected electricity demand may not support a commercially viable operation.

Mini-grids can provide important development benefits in remote communities, but their financial sustainability may require public support, appropriate subsidy arrangements or alternative operating models.

The Rwanda experience demonstrates the importance of matching the selected technology and financing structure to the characteristics of the target community.

Niger: Productive-use connections and programme implementation

In Niger, weak demand in target villages contributed to a shift from a planned public-private partnership arrangement towards full public financing.

The project also fell short of its productive-use connection target, achieving 177 connections for firms, businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises against a target of 500.

This example shows why productive-use demand should be investigated before infrastructure is developed.

Electricity availability does not automatically result in the establishment or expansion of productive enterprises. Businesses may require access to equipment financing, suitable technology, technical skills, markets and working capital before they can use electricity effectively.

Programme designers should therefore identify potential productive users during feasibility assessments and determine what complementary support may be necessary to make their participation viable.

Senegal: The importance of long-term operational sustainability

The IEG evaluation cites a 2024 assessment by the German Institute for Development Evaluation concerning mini-grids installed in Senegal between 2014 and 2017.

According to the evidence referenced in the evaluation, only 9 of the 82 mini-grids examined remained operational by September 2023.

The reported experience highlights the importance of evaluating mini-grid performance beyond construction and initial commissioning.

An evaluation that ends when infrastructure is installed may fail to identify problems associated with maintenance, financial viability, operator capacity and the availability of replacement equipment.

The Senegal example also illustrates why post-implementation monitoring is essential for understanding whether decentralised electricity systems provide lasting services.

Lessons from the country examples

The four examples illustrate different dimensions of programme performance.

Country Implementation experience Evaluation lesson
Nigeria The Nigeria Electrification Project exceeded its mini-grid connection target. Appropriate site selection and realistic demand assessment can strengthen project performance.
Rwanda Planned mini-grid components failed to attract sufficient private interest. Settlement characteristics, enterprise activity and expected demand influence investment viability.
Niger Productive-use connections fell below the programme target. Electricity infrastructure should be supported by demand development and complementary business interventions.
Senegal A cited assessment found that only a small proportion of the mini-grids examined remained operational. Long-term operation, maintenance and financial sustainability must be evaluated after construction.

These examples should not be interpreted as evidence that one technology or delivery model is universally superior. They demonstrate that programme performance depends on the relationship between local conditions, technology selection, demand, institutional arrangements and financing.

Evaluating Financing and Financial Sustainability

Electricity-access programmes require financing for infrastructure development, consumer connections, operation, maintenance and replacement of equipment.

An evaluation should establish whether the financing structure is appropriate for the programme's objectives and whether it supports the continued delivery of electricity services.

Understanding the financing structure

Programmes may combine several financing sources, including:

  • Government budget allocations.
  • International development finance.
  • Concessional loans.
  • Grants and results-based financing.
  • Private equity and commercial debt.
  • Guarantees and risk-sharing instruments.
  • Philanthropic and climate finance.
  • Community contributions and consumer payments.

Evaluation should establish how much financing was committed, how much was actually disbursed, whether funding was released on time and whether the programme experienced financing gaps.

It should also examine the relationship between financing conditions and the ability of the implementing institution or service provider to deliver the intended results.

Distinguishing financial mobilisation from development outcomes

The amount of private capital mobilised is an important indicator of investment activity, but it does not independently establish whether electricity access has improved.

A financing evaluation should examine both the resources mobilised and the results achieved through those resources.

For example, private investment may support generation infrastructure without directly financing new household connections or improving the quality of electricity distribution.

Similarly, a guarantee may reduce investment risk, but the programme should still be assessed in terms of its cost, additionality, beneficiary reach and contribution to service delivery.

The IEA's 2025 report, Financing Electricity Access in Africa, highlights the limited availability of private finance for electricity access and the importance of public and concessional resources.

It estimates that achieving universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2035 under its Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario would require approximately US$15 billion in annual investment.

The report also emphasises the importance of patient equity, grants, blended finance, affordability support and financing arrangements for productive electricity users.

These findings reinforce the need to evaluate financing not only by the amount raised but also by how effectively it supports affordable and sustainable electricity services.

Assessing subsidy effectiveness

Subsidies can support electricity access where infrastructure or services would otherwise be unaffordable to low-income consumers.

However, subsidy programmes should be evaluated to establish whether they reach the intended beneficiaries and achieve their objectives.

Relevant questions include:

  • Which households or service providers receive the subsidy?
  • Is eligibility based on transparent criteria?
  • Does the subsidy reduce connection or electricity costs?
  • Are the intended beneficiaries actually using the electricity service?
  • Does the subsidy encourage additional connections or consumption?
  • Is the subsidy adequately funded?
  • Can the arrangement be sustained over time?
  • Does it create unintended distortions in the electricity market?

Subsidies may be provided through connection grants, lifeline tariffs, capital grants to developers, results-based payments or targeted consumer support.

The choice should reflect the nature of the access barrier and the capacity of the implementing institutions to administer the intervention.

Evaluating results-based financing

Results-based financing links financial payments to the achievement and verification of agreed results.

In electricity-access programmes, payments may depend on verified connections, systems installed, electricity services delivered or other measurable outputs and outcomes.

Evaluation should examine whether:

  • Results are clearly defined and independently verifiable.
  • Payment conditions are realistic.
  • Verification procedures are transparent.
  • The timing of payments is appropriate.
  • Smaller developers can access the financing.
  • The arrangement creates incentives for lasting service delivery rather than one-time installations.

An important consideration is that developers may need substantial upfront capital to implement projects before receiving results-based payments.

Where access to working capital is limited, this can prevent smaller companies from participating even when the financing mechanism is technically available.

Programme design should therefore consider the financing needs of implementers alongside the accountability requirements of funders.

Evaluating Utility Performance and Institutional Capacity

The sustainability of electricity-access programmes is strongly influenced by the ability of utilities and implementing institutions to operate and maintain the infrastructure created.

A programme may deliver new connections while the responsible utility remains financially weak, operationally inefficient or unable to maintain the expanded network.

Financial performance indicators

Useful indicators for evaluating utility financial performance include:

  • Operating-cost recovery.
  • Revenue collection rate.
  • Accounts receivable and unpaid electricity bills.
  • Technical and commercial distribution losses.
  • Operating expenditure per customer.
  • Maintenance expenditure.
  • Debt and outstanding payment obligations.
  • Capital expenditure and investment execution.
  • Financial reporting and audit performance.

These indicators help establish whether the utility has the resources and systems required to sustain electricity services.

They should be interpreted together rather than individually. For example, an improvement in revenue collection may not be sufficient to establish financial sustainability if electricity losses, operating costs and unpaid obligations remain high.

Operational performance indicators

Operational indicators may include:

  • Electricity availability.
  • Frequency and duration of outages.
  • Time taken to restore interrupted services.
  • Network maintenance performance.
  • Equipment failure rates.
  • Customer complaint resolution.
  • Metering and billing accuracy.
  • Electricity supplied compared with electricity sold.

The evaluation should consider whether improvements are sustained and whether they translate into better services for consumers.

Assessing institutional capacity

Institutional capacity is not limited to the number of personnel or training activities completed.

An evaluation should examine whether implementing institutions can perform the responsibilities required to deliver the programme.

These may include:

  • Preparing technically and financially sound projects.
  • Conducting procurement and managing contracts.
  • Supervising construction and commissioning.
  • Managing financial resources and reporting.
  • Enforcing technical and safety standards.
  • Coordinating public and private stakeholders.
  • Monitoring project performance.
  • Resolving implementation problems.
  • Maintaining infrastructure after project completion.

Training programmes should be assessed in terms of their contribution to institutional performance, not simply the number of people who attended them.

For example, training utility personnel in financial management should be linked to improvements in budgeting, accounting, revenue collection and financial reporting.

Multiyear reform and sustained engagement

The IEG evaluation found that utility reforms were more likely to succeed when supported through sustained, multiyear engagement rather than isolated interventions.

This is important because improvements in utility performance often require changes in management systems, governance, tariff arrangements, financial controls and operational practices.

A short project may introduce new procedures or equipment without giving the institution enough time to embed the changes.

Programme evaluation should therefore examine whether reforms are integrated into the utility's regular operations and supported by clear accountability arrangements.

Equity, Inclusion and Beneficiary-Level Outcomes

An electricity-access programme should be evaluated according to who benefits from the intervention, not only the total number of people reached.

The poorest households and most remote communities may face the greatest barriers to electricity access, including high connection costs, low incomes, limited infrastructure and weak access to finance.

Evaluating access among low-income households

Evaluation should establish whether low-income households can connect to and continue using electricity services.

Relevant indicators include:

  • Connection rates among low-income households.
  • Connection charges as a proportion of household income.
  • Monthly electricity expenditure.
  • Frequency of disconnection due to non-payment.
  • Uptake of connection subsidies.
  • Continued use of electricity after initial connection.

A programme that primarily reaches households with higher purchasing power may expand connections without adequately addressing the needs of the poorest consumers.

Gender and participation

Electricity-access programmes can affect women and men differently because of differences in income, access to finance, economic activity and household responsibilities.

Evaluation may examine:

  • Participation of women in programme consultations.
  • Access to electricity among women-headed households.
  • Financing available to women-owned enterprises.
  • Women's participation in energy businesses and local service provision.
  • Changes in time spent on household and productive activities.
  • Access to electricity for health, education and community services.

Gender-related indicators should be selected according to the programme's objectives and the availability of reliable baseline information.

Public institutions and essential services

Electricity access for schools, health facilities, water systems and other public institutions should be assessed separately from household connections.

A health facility may have a solar system installed but lack sufficient capacity for refrigeration, laboratory equipment or essential medical devices.

Similarly, a school may be connected to electricity but experience insufficient supply for computers, lighting and digital learning equipment.

Evaluation should examine whether the electricity system supports the actual service requirements of each institution.

It should also establish who is responsible for paying electricity bills, maintaining equipment and replacing components.

Common Weaknesses in Electricity-Access Programme Evaluation

Several weaknesses can reduce the usefulness of programme evaluations and prevent decision-makers from identifying problems accurately.

Overreliance on connection counts

Counting connections is important, but it does not establish whether consumers receive reliable and affordable electricity.

Programmes should combine connection indicators with measures of availability, reliability, affordability, capacity and sustainability.

Missing baseline data

Without baseline information, it becomes difficult to determine whether observed changes resulted from the programme or from wider developments.

Baseline assessments should therefore be completed before major implementation activities begin.

Inadequate monitoring of affordability

The World Bank IEG evaluation found that only 7 percent of closed projects monitored any electricity cost-related indicators.

This is a significant limitation because consumers may be connected to electricity but unable to afford regular use.

Affordability indicators should be included in programme monitoring frameworks from the beginning.

Confusing construction with successful service delivery

Infrastructure completion does not automatically mean that electricity services are functioning.

Programmes should verify that systems are commissioned, connected to consumers, operational and maintained.

Unrealistic demand assumptions

Demand forecasts that are not supported by household surveys, business assessments or realistic consumption estimates can undermine mini-grid and other decentralised projects.

Programme evaluators should compare actual demand with the assumptions used during project preparation.

Weak post-implementation monitoring

Some programmes reduce monitoring activities significantly after construction and initial commissioning.

This can leave equipment failures, financial difficulties and declining service quality undetected.

Evaluation should include appropriate follow-up periods based on the technology, operating model and expected service life.

Failure to examine institutional sustainability

A project may deliver infrastructure without adequately assessing whether the responsible utility, local authority or private operator can sustain it.

Evaluation should examine institutional responsibilities, operating budgets, maintenance arrangements and long-term service agreements.

A Practical Framework for Designing an Evaluation Plan

The following steps can help governments, programme managers, development partners and implementing organisations establish a structured evaluation process.

Step 1: Define the programme's objectives

Clearly identify the electricity-access problem the programme is intended to address.

Establish whether the primary objective concerns new connections, improved reliability, affordability, productive use, institutional reform or a combination of these outcomes.

Step 2: Identify the target population and service requirements

Determine which households, businesses and public institutions the programme intends to serve.

Document their existing electricity sources, energy requirements, location, income characteristics and major access constraints.

Step 3: Establish the results chain

Map the relationship between inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and intended long-term impacts.

Identify the assumptions that must hold for programme activities to produce the expected results.

Step 4: Select the delivery model and indicators

Determine whether grid extension, mini-grids, standalone systems or a combination of technologies is appropriate.

Select indicators that correspond to the objectives and service requirements of the programme.

Step 5: Collect baseline data

Collect information on existing access, electricity service quality, household affordability, demand, infrastructure and institutional performance.

Use appropriate household surveys, utility records, technical assessments and stakeholder consultations.

Step 6: Establish monitoring responsibilities

Identify which institution is responsible for collecting, verifying, analysing and reporting each indicator.

Define reporting frequency, data quality requirements and arrangements for independent verification.

Step 7: Monitor implementation and investigate deviations

Compare actual progress with programme targets.

Investigate delays, cost increases, changes in demand, low connection rates and other deviations.

Adjust implementation arrangements where necessary.

Step 8: Conduct outcome and sustainability assessments

Assess whether electricity services are reliable, affordable, functional and sustainable.

Examine the financial and institutional capacity of service providers and the experience of consumers.

Step 9: Document findings and apply lessons

Prepare findings that identify what worked, what did not work, why results occurred and what should change in future programmes.

Recommendations should identify responsible institutions and realistic actions rather than simply calling for more investment or stronger coordination.

Example evaluation planning matrix

Evaluation question Indicator Data collection method Frequency
Are new households gaining access? Number of verified active household connections Project records and household verification Quarterly
Is electricity available when required? Average hours of electricity supply per day Utility records, smart meters and household surveys Quarterly or semi-annually
Has service reliability improved? SAIDI, SAIFI and system downtime Utility outage records and technical monitoring Monthly or quarterly
Is electricity affordable? Household electricity expenditure relative to income Household surveys and payment records Annually
Are productive users benefiting? Number of active enterprises using electricity and their electricity consumption Business surveys and metering records Semi-annually
Are electricity systems sustainable? Functional systems, maintenance expenditure and equipment replacement Technical inspections and operator records Annually
Is the service provider financially viable? Revenue collection, cost recovery and outstanding obligations Audited financial statements Quarterly or annually
Are vulnerable groups benefiting? Access rates disaggregated by income, gender and location Household surveys and programme databases Annually

The matrix should be adapted to the scale and objectives of each programme. Reporting frequency should reflect the cost of data collection, the availability of reliable information and the urgency of the indicator being monitored.

Conclusion

Evaluating electricity-access programmes requires a shift from measuring infrastructure delivery alone to examining the quality, affordability and sustainability of electricity services.

The evidence from the World Bank Group's 2015–2025 evaluation demonstrates that substantial connection gains can coexist with persistent challenges in reliability, affordability, mini-grid implementation and utility performance.

The country examples also show that programme results depend on local demand, appropriate technology selection, institutional capacity, regulatory arrangements and sustainable financing.

A credible evaluation should therefore combine technical verification, household and business surveys, financial analysis, utility performance data and stakeholder evidence. It should establish a clear relationship between programme activities, outputs, outcomes and long-term development objectives.

For governments and development partners, evaluation should not be treated as an administrative requirement undertaken only when a project is approaching completion. It should be integrated into programme design and implementation so that evidence can inform decisions, reveal problems and improve results throughout the life of an intervention.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of an electricity-access programme should be judged not simply by how many people were connected, but by whether people and institutions receive electricity services that are useful, dependable, affordable and sustainable.

See Also

External Links

References

  • World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group (2026). An Evaluation of the World Bank Group's Support to Electricity Access in Sub-Saharan Africa, Fiscal Years 2015–25. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. Official report.
  • World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group (2026). Chapter 1: Introduction. Online chapter.
  • World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group (2026). Chapter 3: Effectiveness of the World Bank Group's Support for Electricity Access for Households. Online chapter.
  • World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group (2026). Chapter 4: The World Bank Group's Support for Utility Performance and Private Sector Participation. Online chapter.
  • World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group (2026). Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations. Online chapter.
  • World Bank, ESMAP (2026). The Multi-Tier Framework for Energy Access: Insights and Impact from a Decade of Surveys. Publication information and report.
  • World Bank, ESMAP (2015). Beyond Connections: Energy Access Redefined. Report and framework.
  • World Bank and World Health Organization (2021). Measuring Energy Access: A Guide to Collecting Data Using the Core Questions on Household Energy Use. Guidebook.
  • International Energy Agency (2025). Financing Electricity Access in Africa. Paris: IEA. Report. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  • African Development Bank (2024). Electricity Regulatory Index for Africa 2024. Report.
  • German Institute for Development Evaluation (2024). Evaluation evidence on mini-grid sustainability in Senegal, as cited in the World Bank Group IEG evaluation.
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