Event - From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system
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Title
From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system
Organizer
NEWPATHWAYS
Type
Online Seminars
Focus
- Other
- Climate Change
Start
2026/03/17 14:00PM CET
End
2026/03/17 15:00PM CET
Venue
Online (Zoom)
URL
Description
This webinar provides an overview of the European efforts on the phase out of fossil fuels.
The EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a nearly complete EU-wide phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 compared to a standard net-zero scenario with remaining fossil fuels. We show that in the standard net-zero scenario fossil fuel consumption already decreases by 90% from 2020 to 2050. It is compensated by renewable power, the switch to electric technologies like heat pumps and electric vehicles, as well as some hydrogen and biofuels. However, some oil and natural gas persists in hard-to-abate sectors such as the chemical industry, aviation and shipping. Phasing them out requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which substantially increases marginal abatement costs from 460 EUR to 630 EUR tCO2-1 (500-1000 EUR tCO2-1). Our works shows the additional transformation challenges if the EU aims to strengthen its climate policy commitment with a full fossil phase-out target.
