Difference between revisions of "Energy Access Figures"

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Revision as of 13:29, 6 January 2016

Overview

In the article at hand energy access and investment needs figures from various sources, published at different times, are summarized. This article is only meant to give a rough overview of existing reliable sources concerning energy access for electricity and cooking energy and investment needed to provide universal access to energy, on a worldwide and regional scale. The presented sources use different input data, different methodologies and different regional aggregates for their calculations and estimates, thus a comparison of calculation and estimation outcomes is difficult and is beyond the scope of this article.



Electricity Access

Lack of Access to Electricity Worldwide (Absolute Numbers)

Source Present Future

Global Tracking Framework 2015[1]

2012 - 1,1 billion


IEA WEO 2015[2]

2013 - 1.2 billion

2030 - 810 mio
2040 - 550 mio

IEA WEO 2014[3]

2012 - 1, 285 billion

2030 – 969 million

Global Tracking Framework 2013[4]

2011 -  about 1.2 billion

IEA WEO 2013[5]

2011 – 1.257 billion

IEA WEO 2012[6]

2010 - 1.267 billion

2030 - 991 million

IEA WEO 2011[7]

2009 - 1.317 billion

2030 – 1,036 billion

IEA WEO 2010[8]

2009 - 1.441 billion 2030 - 1.213 billion

Practical Action 2012[9]

2009/2010 - 1.5 billion

2030 - 900 million

United National General Assembly (UN GA) 2010[10]

2009/2010 – 1.5 billion


International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Global Energy Assessment (IIASA GEA 2012)[11]

2010 - 1.4 billion

World Health Orgnaisation (WHO) 2009[12]

2009 - 1.5 billion


UN Secretary-General´s Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change (AGECC) 2010[13]

2009 - About 1.5 billion



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Lack of Access to Electricity Regional (Absolute Numbers)

Source

Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2015[14]

2013

634 mio

2013

525 mio

2030
185 mio

2040
50 mio

IEA WEO 2014 [3]

622 mio

2040

530 mio

2012

620 mio


2012

23 mio


IEA WEO 2013[5]

2011

599 mio

2030

645 mio

2011

615 mio

2030

324 mio

2011

24 mio

2030

0 mio

IEA WEO 2012[6]

2010

589 mio

2030

655 mio

2010

628 mio

2030

334 mio

2010

29 mio

2030

0 mio

IEA WEO 2011[7]

2009

586 mio

2030

645 mio

2009

675 mio

2030

376 mio

2009

31 mio

2030

10 mio

IEA WEO 2010[8]

2009

585

2030

652 mio

2009

799 mio

2030

545 mio.

2009

31 mio

2030

10 mio


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Access to Electricity Worldwide (% of Population)

Source

Present

Future

IEO WEO 2015[15]

2013
83%



Global Tracking Framework 2015[1]

total 2012: 85%

Global Tracking Framwork (UN SE4All) 2013[16]

Total 2010: 83%

Rural 2010: 70%

Urban 2010: 95%

University Denver, Paterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) 2013[17]

Total 2010: 78%

Total 2035: 89% Total 2060: 95%
IEA WEO 2012[6]

Total 2010: 81%

Total 2030: 88%
IEA WEO 2014[3] Total 2012: 82%


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Access to Electricity Regional (% of Population)

Source

Africa

Asia

Latin America

Global Tracking Framework (UN SE4All) 2015[18]



Global tracking Framework (UN SE4All) 2013[16]

Total

  • Sub-Saharan 32%
  • North Africa 99%
  • Caucasus a Central 100%
  • East Asia 98%
  • Oceania 25%
  • South Asia 75%
  • South East Asia 88%
  • West Asia 91%
  • Latin America and Caribbean 95%

Rural

  • Sub-Saharan 14%
  • North Africa 99%
  • Caucasus a Central 99%
  • East Asia 97%
  • Oceania 14%
  • South Asia 67%
  • South East Asia 80%
  • West Asia 78%
  • Latin America and Caribbean 84%

Urban

  • Sub-Saharan 63%
  • North Africa 100%
  • Caucasus a Central 100%
  • East Asia 98%
  • Oceania 65%
  • South Asia 94%
  • South East Asia 97%
  • West Asia 97%
  • Latin America and Caribbean 98%

Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2015[3]

Total Asia 2013: 85%
2013 95%

IEA WEO 2014[3]

2012 32%

2040 

2012 83%


2012 95%


IEA WEO 2012[6]

2010 32%

2030 52%

2010 82%

2030 92%

2010 94%

2030 100%

IEA WEO 2011[7]

2009 31%

2030 51%

2009 81%

2030 91%

2009 93%

2030 98%

IEA WEO 2010[8] 2009 31% 2030 50% 2009 78% 2030 88% 2009 73% 2030 98%


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Access to Clean Cooking Energy

► Facts on Cooking Energy



People Relying on Traditional Biomass Worldwide (Absolute Numbers)

Source Present Future
IEA WEO 2014[3]   2,679 mio
IEA WEO 2013[5]

2011 – 2.642 billion1

2030 – 2.524 billion

IEA WEO 2012[6]

2010 - 2.588 billion

2030 - 2.595 billion

IEA WEO 2011[7]

2009 – 2.662 billion

2030 – 2.715 billion

IEA WEO 2010[8]

2009 - 2.679 billion

2030 - 2.8 billion
IIASA GEA 2012[19]

2009 about 2.7 billion

(Based on IEA 2010)

Practical Action 2012[9]

2010 – nearly 3 billion

2030 – 3 billion

Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC)[20]

2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion

WHO 2011[21]

2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion

UN Energy[22]

2013 (solid fuels) about 3 billion

AGECC 2010[13]

2009 (solid fuels) appr. 3 billion

UN GA 2010[10]

2009/2010 - 3 billion

1 Increased number of people relying on traditional use of biomass (from WEO 2012 to WEO 2013) is caused by population number upward revision for India.


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Cooking with Traditional Biomass Worldwide (% of Population)

Source Present Future
IEA WEO 2014[3]

Total 2012:

2,7 billion people (38%)



IEA WEO 2012[6]

Total 2010: 49%


Total 2030: 39%



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People Relying on Traditional Biomass Regional (Absolute Numbers)

Source

Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2014[3]

2012

728 mio

2040

650 mio

2012

1,875 mio


2012

68 mio


IEA WEO 2013[5]

2011

696 mio

2030

881 mio

2011

1,869 mio

2030

1,582 mio

2011

68 mio

2030

53 mio

IEA WEO 2012[6]

2010

696 mio

2030

883 mio

2010

1,814 mio

2030

1,640 mio

2010

65 mio

2030

62 mio

IEA WEO 2011[7]

2009

653 mio

2030

918 mio

2009

1,921 mio

2030

1,769 mio

2009

85 mio

2030

79 mio

IEA WEO 2010[8]

2009

653 mio

2030

918 mio

2009

1.937 mio

2030

1.769 mio

2009

85 mio

2030

79 mio


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Cooking with Traditional Biomass Regional (% of Population)

Source

Sub-Saharan Africa

Developing Asia

Latin America

IEA WEO 2014[3]

2012 80%



2012 51%


2012 15%


IEA WEO 2012[6]

2010 81%

2030 65%

2010 51%

2030 39%

2010 14%

2030 11%

IEA WEO 2011[7]

2009 78%

2030 67%

2009 54%

2030 41%

2009 19%

2030 14%

IEA WEO 2010[8]

2009 80% 2030 70% 2009 55% 2030 62% 2009 18% 2030 14%


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Access to Non-solid-biofuels Worldwide (% of Population)

Source Present Future

UN SE4All 2013[16]

Total 2010: 59%

Rural 2010: 35%

Urban 2010: 84%




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Access to Non-solid Fuels Regional (% of Population)

Source

Africa

Asia

Latin America

UN SE4All 2013[16]

Total

  • Sub-Saharan 19%
  • North Africa 100%
  • Caucasus a Central 85%
  • East Asia 55%
  • Oceania 31%
  • South Asia 40%
  • South East Asia 48%
  • West Asia 95%
  • Latin America and Caribbean 86%

Rural

  • Sub-Saharan 6%
  • North Africa 99%
  • Caucasus a Central 74%
  • East Asia 35%
  • Oceania 21%
  • South Asia 23%
  • South East Asia 27%
  • West Asia 86%
  • Latin America and Caribbean 57%

Urban

  • Sub-Saharan 42%
  • North Africa 100%
  • Caucasus a Central 98%
  • East Asia 76%
  • Oceania 73%
  • South Asia 78%
  • South East Asia 77%
  • West Asia 99%
  • Latin America and Caribbean 94%


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Household Use of Modern Forms of Energy (% of Population)

Source Present Future

PPHP 2013[17]

Total 2010: 57%


Total 2035: 78%

Total 2060: 88%


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Mortality from Household Air Pollution

In the year 2012, household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels was responsible for 4.3 million deaths. This makes this risk factor the largest environmental contributor to ill health. The importance of household air pollution as a public health threat varies drastically according to the level of development: in low- and middle-income countries, household air pollution is responsible for almost 10% of the mortality, while the same risk factor is only responsible for 0.2% of deaths in high-income countries.[23]


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Total Deaths by Region (absolute numbers)

Global
 Africa
 South East Asia
 Europe
 America
 Eastern Mediterranean
 Western Pacific
4,3 mio
 600,000
 1,69 mio
 99,000
 81,000
 200,000
 1,62 mio

Source: WHO (2014): Burden of Disease from Household Air Polllution for 2012. [24]


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Deaths Attributable to HAP by Age and Sex

Children < 5yr: 534,00 (13%)

Women >25yr: 1,767,000 (41%)

Men >25 yr: 1,991,000 (46%)


Although women experience higher personal exposure levels than men and therefore higher relative risk to develop adverse health outcomes due to their greater involvement in daily cooking activities, the absolute burden is larger in men due to larger underlying disease rates in men.[25]


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Necessary Investment for Universal Access to Modern Energy Services

Additional Average Annual Investment Needed for Total / Universal Energy Access

Source

Annually

comments

UN SE4All 2013[16]

33.9 billion USD



IEA WEO 2011[7]

from 2010 34 billion USD

(in total 1 trillion USD (296 billion USD in new policies) 640 billion USD)


AGECC 2010[13]

35-40 billion USD


Pachauri et al 2012[26]

65 – 86 billion USD

(only grid–access and LPG-like cooking)


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Electricity

Additional average annual investment needed for total universal electricity access regional, in billion USD

Source

Global

Africa

Asia

Latin America

UN SE4All 2013[16]

30.1 bn USD

SSA 19.1 bn USD

EA & Oce 0.4 bn USD

SA 9.2 bn USD

SEA 1.3 bn USD


IEA WEO 2011[7]

30.5 bn USD

SSA 18.5 bn USD

Dev. A. 11.5 bn USD

only India 6.4 bn USD

0.3 bn USD

Ruijven et al. 2012[27]

From 2010 - 2030

238 – 400 bn USD

SSA

6.1 – 10.2 bn USD

Asia

1.4 – 2.5 bn USD

LA

4.3 – 7.1 bn USD

SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia


Electricity Access for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology

Source Technology Investment needed per year

IEA WEO 2011[7]

  • In Total
  • On-grid electrification
  • Mini-grid electrification
  • Off-grid electrification
  • 30.5 billion USD/year
  • 11 billion USD/year
  • 12 billion USD/year
  • 7 billion USD/year


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Cooking Energy

Additional average annual investment needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking facilities, regional, in billion USD

Source

Global

Africa

Asia

Latin America

UN SE4All 2013[16]

3.8 bn USD

SSA 1.1 bn USD

ME & NAf 0.01 bn USD


EA & Oce 0.9 bn USD

SA 1.2 bn USD

SEA 0.4 bn USD

0.2 bn USD

IEA WEO 2011[7]

3.5 bn USD

SSA 1.1 bn USD

Dev. A. 2.3 bn USD

only India 0.8 bn USD

only China 0.8 bn USD

0.2 bn USD

SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia, ME: Middle East, NAf: North Africa


Clean Cooking Facilities for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology

Source Technology Necessary annual investment

IEA WEO 2011[7]

  • In Total
  • LPG Cookstoves
  • Biomass systems
  • Biomass Cookstoves
  • 3.5 billion USD/year
  • 0.9 billion USD/year
  • 1.8 billion USD/year
  • 0.8 billion USD/year


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Further Information


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References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Sustainable Energy for All. Global Tracking Framework Report 2015. http://www.se4all.org/tracking-progress/
  2. ↑ OECD/IEA (2015): World Energy Outlook http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/world-energy-outlook-2015_weo-2015-en
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 OECD/IEA (2014): World Energy Outlook 2014 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2014/
  4. ↑ http://trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org/~/media/GIAWB/GTF/Documents/GTF-2013-Full-Report.pdf
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Source: OECD/IEA (2013): World Energy Outlook 2013. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2013/
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 Source: OECD/IEA (2012): World Energy Outlook 2012. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/
  7. ↑ 7.00 7.01 7.02 7.03 7.04 7.05 7.06 7.07 7.08 7.09 7.10 Source: OECD/IEA (2011): Energy for All – Financing Access for the Poor. Special early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2011. Updated estimates of the OECD/IEA 2010. http://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdf
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/fckLR Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/" defined multiple times with different content
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Practical Action (2012): Poor People’s Energy Outlook: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2012-report
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 UN General Assembly - International Year for Sustainable Energy for All, 11 November 2010, Sixty-fifth session, Second Committee
  11. ↑ Source: IIASA GEA 2012: Global Energy Assessment- Towards a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  12. ↑ Source: WHO – The Energy Access Situation in developing countries. A Review Focusing on the Least Developed Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa (November 2009)
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 AGECC Report 2010: Energy for a sustainable future: http://www.un-energy.org/publications/558-agecc-report-energy-for-a-sustainable-future
  14. ↑ http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/world-energy-outlook-2015_weo-2015-en
  15. ↑ http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/world-energy-outlook-2015_weo-2015-en
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 UN SE4All Global Tracking Report, Data based on IEA 2012, the data is based on National household surveys; WB global electrification database, 2012 ; WHO household energy database, 2012
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 PPhP (2014), Patterns of Potential Human Progress, Volume 4, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures University Denver
  18. ↑ http://trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org/~/media/GIAWB/GTF/Documents/GTF-2105-Full-Report.pdf
  19. ↑ Source: IIASA GEA 2012: Global Energy Assessment- Towards a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  20. ↑ Source: GACC, Issue – Environmnet, [online] http://www.cleancookstoves.org/our-work/the-issues/ last accessed 11/11/2013
  21. ↑ Source: WHO, Indoor air pollution and health, September 2011 [online] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs292/en/
  22. ↑ http://www.un-energy.org/cluster/energy_access
  23. ↑ WHO - Global Health Observatory Data http://www.who.int/gho/phe/indoor_air_pollution/burden_text/en/
  24. ↑ http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/HAP_BoD_results_March2014.pdf?ua=1
  25. ↑ WHO (2014): Burden of Disease from Household Air Pollution for 2012. http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/HAP_BoD_results_March2014.pdf?ua=1
  26. ↑ Source: Pauchauri et al (2013), Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030, Environmental Research Letters 8
  27. ↑ Source: B.J. Ruijven, J. Schers, D.P. van Vuuren: Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in devloping countries, (2012), Energy 38 386-397


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