Characterizing Kerosene Demand for Lighting India and Evaluating the Impact of Measures Affecting Access and Dependence

Characterizing Kerosene Demand for Light in India and Evaluating the Impact of Measures Affecting Access and Dependence

Presenter: Nicholas L. Lam,( University of California, Berkeley,USA)

Overview

A national expenditure survey of India was analyzed to characterize demand for kerosene used for residential lighting. Results were use to model demand within MESSAGE-Access. Five scenarios were developed to explore the impact of policies that could alter fuel access (e.g. fuel subsidies) and dependence (e.g. electricity reliability), and the associated impacts on fuel demand, pollutant emissions, air quality, and health estimated. Approximately 65-70% of kerosene consumed in the residential sector in 2005-6 was used for lighting (4700Gg). Over half (65%) was used by homes with an electricity connection, but unreliable supply. Estimated kerosene demand curves are highly elastic across population groups, and thus highly sensitive to fuel price (e.g. subsidy phase-out). Even under optimistic electrification scenarios, dependence on fuel-based lighting will likely continue without efforts to improve supply reliability. Considering both primary and backup kerosene users increases current BC emission estimates from the residential sector in India by 30- 40%, but has only modest impacts on outdoor PM2.5 concentrations. Estimates of health impacts from outdoor air quality and household-level exposures are forthcoming. Results thus far emphasize the importance of electricity reliability in driving fuel demand for light and, likely, associated burdens. With efforts to reduce fossil fuel subsidies, mechanisms for providing affordable lighting, not dependent on centralized grid expansion, will be needed.