Market for Solar Home Systems (SHS)
McKinsey expects up to 150 million households will benefit from SHS by 2020 (market potential). In order to realise this market potential five factors are critical (off-grid regulation, business environment, logistics and channels, affordability and WTP, ease of payment). Countries have different state of readiness: Kendallranks the 39 countries that compose more than 90 percent of the global unelectrified population. (2018)
Solar Home System (SHS) Markets by Country (2015)
The most mature off-grid PV markets exist in:
- India (650,000 installed SHSs)
- Bangladesh (550,000 SHSs)
- Indonesia (250,000 SHSs)
- China (150,000 SHSs)
- Kenya (120,000 - 250,000 SHSs)
- Morocco (80,000 SHSs)
- Mexico (80,000 SHSs)
- Nepal (69,411 SHSs)
- South Africa (50,000 SHSs)
- Sri Lanka (21,000 SHSs).
Kenya and China are by far the fastest growing markets, with annual growth rates of 10% – 20% in recent years.
Many of these countries also manufacture components for SHS, such as batteries, controllers, and lights. In 2002, PV module manufacturers existed in:
PV cells are manufactured in:
In recent years, the manufacturing base in China has grown exponentially. Gabler (2008) and Photon (2008) estimate for 2007 that newly installed off-grid PV capacity in developing countries lies at around 50 MWp per year (compared to 150 MWp global annual market volume for off-grid PV – including off-grid PV for recreational uses and industry, such as telecom repeaters, worldwide).
At system prices of about 10 €/Watt, total turnover in developing countries can be estimated to account for 0.5 € billion. (2015)
- Nieuwenhout, 2002
- 2018 Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report. https://www.gogla.org/sites/default/files/resource_docs/2018_mtr_full_report_low-res_2018.01.15_final.pdf