Solar Home System Market Size in Mozambique

From energypedia

Introduction

This article provides a snapshot of the SHS market in Mozambique particularly the market size and is targeted at private sector, donor organisations, NGOs, Government bodies and other stakeholders who are interested in getting a deeper understanding of the SHS market.  

In this article, the term SHS includes all Tier SHS, including picoPV products (below 10 W). Tier 1 is defined as basic SHS with lights and/or radio and/or USB port for mobile charging. Tier 2 includes lights, phone charger, radio and TV. Tier 3+ includes big productive use appliances such as solar pumps, refrigerators.

SHS Market Size

As of 2019, only 30.6% of Mozambicans had access to the national grid electricity. This number is even lower for the rural population where only 4.5% have access to grid electricity, although 63% of the total population are living in rural areas[1]. Thus, the Mozambican energy sector presents an enormous opportunity for off-grid electrification using SHS and mini-grids. Read more about the energy access situation in Mozambique here.

A study in 2018 calculated the potential for SHS market to be 4.4 million households and this mainly covers the market for SHS with single light and phone charger. A detailed breakdown is shown in the table below[2] :

Systems Potential market size (households)
SHS with single light and phone charger 4.4 million
SHS with multiple lights, phone charger and radio 3.5 million
SHS with multiple light, phone charger, radio and TV 645,000
SHS with multiple lights, phones charger, radio, TV and refrigerators 276,000

A recent USAID study from 2020 estimates that 824,000 households (i.e. one in every five households) could afford a SHS without any additional subsidy.  These households spend on average USD 7.5 per month on lighting, which is also the average monthly instalment for Tier 1 SHS[3]. The three largest potential markets are in Nampula, Cabo Delgado and Manica provinces. The wealthiest households are in Maputo and Manica. Zambezia province is the poorest where only 8 % can afford SHS[3].

The table below provides an overview of the demographics and electrification rate in the 11 Mozambican provinces (based on 2017 census data)[4].

Province Population Households[1] Electrified population (%) Monthly energy expenditure (USD) Poverty rate (%)
Maputo City 1,120,869 224,175 100 15.9 11.8
Maputo 1,968,889 393,774 78 15.9 11.8
Sofala 2,259,248 451,842 34 5.4 49.6
Gaza 1,422,458 284,517 30 6.3 43.6
Manica 1,945,982 389,182 25 6.7 37.2
Nampula 5,758,902 1,151,800 23 4.1 64.8
Cabo Delgado 2,320,261 464,066 22 7.1 50
Niassa 1,810,803 362,161 19 5.8 66.7
Inhambane 1,488,685 297,745 15 6.6 34.5
Tete 2,648,949 529,790 14 7.1 41.9
Zambezia 5,164,726 1,032,961 10 4.1 61.8

The table below shows the distribution of potential SHS households across the different provinces; and challenges and opportunities for reaching these households (based on the 2019 SAEP consumer survey)*[3].

Provinces Potential SHS market (households) Challenges Opportunities Recommendations
Nampula 300,000 Humanitarian crisis has spread from Cabo Delgado to some part of Nampula[5]. Highest awareness for SHS products Opportunity to expand SHS products in deeper areas of this province
Highest ownership of SHS Private sector can collaborate with humanitarian agencies to meet the energy needs of the displaced population in temporary settlements.
Good perception of solar among households
Cabo Delgado 130,000 Humanitarian crisis Highest ownership of SHS Stay updated on the humanitarian crisis and how it develops.

Explore safer districts in Cabo Delgado for SHS distribution

No service providers in the immediate vicinity of the households Highest access to mobile money access Increasing the number of sales agents in this province
Manica 101,000 No service providers in the immediate vicinity of the households Wealthiest households are in this province Increasing the number of sales agents in this province
Low ownerships of SHS Willingness to pay for SHS is high Awareness and marketing activities needed
Sofala 80,000 Low affordability of the households Highest awareness of SHS products Offer lower Tier SHS that match the household’s ability to pay
Subsidies from donor to target these regions are helpful
Tete 78,000 High risk of default Offer lower Tier SHS
Low affordability of the households Subsidies from donor to target these regions are helpful
Low access to mobile money Explore other informal micro financing[2]
Zambezia 76,000 High risk of default High income stability Offer lower Tier SHS
Low ownership of SHS Subsidies from donor to target these regions are helpful
Poorest households
Gaza 38,000 Low affordability of households Offer lower Tier SHS
Subsidies from donor to target these regions are helpful
Maputo 17,000 Perception of solar is least positive Highest ownership Awareness and marketing campaign needed
Highest access to mobile money
Inhambane 13,000 High risk of default
Low affordability Offer lower range of SHS and subsidies from donor programmes to target these regions are helpful
Low access to mobile money Explore other informal micro financing options

Further Information

Reference

  1. World Bank, “Mozambique | Data.”https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=MZ.
  2. 2.0 2.1 Greenlight. “Mozambique  – Off-Grid Energy Market Assessment.” 2019. https://beyondthegrid.africa/wp-content/uploads/MOZ-Greenlight-Off-Grid-Energy-Market-Analysis.pdf.
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 USAID. “Can Mozambican Household Afford SHS? Insights from a Local Survey,” 2020. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00WJJH.pdf
  4. USAID. “Mozambique Route-to-Market Tool,” 2020. https://dec.usaid.gov/dec/GetDoc.axdctID=ODVhZjk4NWQtM2YyMi00YjRmLTkxNjktZTcxMjM2NDBmY2Uy&pID=NTYw&attchmnt=VHJ1ZQ==&rID=NTU5NDcy.
  5. UNPF. “Mozambique Fact Sheet for the Northern Province Humanitarian Crisis: Cabo Delgado - Nampula - Niass,” 2021. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/unfpa_mozambique_fact_sheet_-_nothern_province_humanitarian_crisis_jan2021_0.pdf